The weekend began a “trip” that has ended with The meeting Trump with Zelenski and European leaders and negotiations on the end of the Ukraine War as a backdrop. In the last meeting the feared clash was avoided, but left an uncertain peace process full of traps. While kyiv and his allies were looking for security guarantees clear and stop the idea that giving territory is a previous condition, Moscow has already achieved something that did not imagine even in its best dreams: having a Winning Baraja.
The last encounter. This general perception of Victoria in Moscow is given by several factors, but mainly thanks to awkwardness of the envoy Steve Witkoff and the Trump’s complacency that Russia’s territorial demands are assumed as a starting point. Putin insists that Ukraine abandons what he still controls in Donetsk and Lugansk, a assignment Impossible for Zelenski without incurring a political and military suicide, but whose negative could be presented as an obstacle to peace.
Europe has preferred to focus its efforts In vague promises Of “ITA -style 5” protection, lacking precision and effective military commitments, while Trump offers only indirect “help and coordination”.
Alaska’s failure. The key to all the negotiation until now was given the weekend. The summit held in Anchorage between Trump and Putin resulted in A diplomatic fiasco that the American strategy towards war in Ukraine was questioned. Trump sought to start the immediate fire, but Putin He denied yieldreaffirming some objectives that are equivalent, in practice, to the Ukrainian capitulation.
In exchange for the treatment of a guest of honor and the symbolic rehabilitation of a leader under constant scrutiny in the West, the US president barely obtained empty compliments. Far from pressing, he resigned to threatening severe consequences and did not even mention the possibility of an encounter Three bands with Zelenski, which showed a position of weakness and a worrying alignment with the Russian narrative.
Putin is imposed. During the joint press conference, Putin insisted that to achieve a sustainable solution They had to attend The “deep causes” of the conflict, euphemism that in its lexicon implies reverse the expansion of NATO since 1997, to ensure that Ukraine never one ever joins the Atlantic Alliance, reduce the size of kyiv’s armed forces and consolidate the loss of occupied territories.
In other words, a redesign of European security architecture under parameters dictated by Moscow. Trump, far from rejecting these claims, implied that he was willing to discuss themalso transferring the burden of reaching an agreement to Ukraine and its European allies.
The 2018 meeting
Custom negotiation. Trump He assumed the thesis Putin to move towards a global agreement instead of a high provisional fire, an option that kyiv shared before but today, with advances in the front, favors Moscow only, allowing him to delay conversations and consolidate occupations.
The Russian territorial demands, which include forcing Ukraine to resign the Donetsk room and Lugansk still under their control, constitute A red line For kyiv and Europe. Trump, however, declared have coincided With Putin “in most points”, which suggests a dangerous willingness to validate a kind of territorial amputation that would militarily weaken to Ukraine, destabilize its internal policy and open the door to new Russian aggressions.
The enigma USA. Remembered the Financial Times that this turn raises Two readings disturbing: either Trump sympathizes in the background with the logic of brute force that legitimizes territorial annexation, or is easily molded by his last interlocutor, without his own coherent strategy.
If the first case, Ukraine and Europe would face an insurmountable obstacle. In the second, they could still try to reorient their position in future meetings. In any case, the diplomatic success that Europeans thought they had assured the week before the meeting has been demonstrated illusory and passenger.
Repetition of patterns. I remembered The New York Times that Anchorage’s scene evoked strongly Helsinki meeting In 2018, when Trump trusted Putin’s word more than in American intelligence services themselves. Again, the personal closeness with the Russian president resulted in strategic concessions.
For many observers, the summit recalled the echoes of the Munich agreement From 1938, when Neville Chamberlain gave part of Czechoslovakia to Hitler in a vain attempt to appease. Figures Like Boris Johnson They did not hesitate to qualify the episode of “vomitive” and one of the worst moments of modern international diplomacy.
Horizon of uncertainty. Although Trump spoke of “agreements” and Putin alluded to a mysterious “understanding” achieved in Alaska, There are no signs that the Kremlin is willing to give up its most extreme demands. The apparent euphoria of the US delegation contrasts with The harsh reality: There is no fire, there are no additional sanctions and there is no term that limits the Russian offensive.
Thus, the war, far from approaching its end, It extends With a new ingredient of concern: the disposition of the US president to legitimize Moscow’s demands on behalf of a peace That, if materializing in current terms, it would have more capitulation than lasting solution.
Image | Сергей бобыёвKremlin.ru
In Xataka | Russia has up to four unpublished robots in a war. We hadn’t seen Ukraine’s response: Flamingo
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings