Spain has just entered a “polar episode” because of Greenland

It’s May and yes, it’s cold out there. Maybe not “very cold”, but certainly much colder than reasonable. And the fact is that, between Sunday the 10th and Thursday the 14th, the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands will go through a “thermal drop” caused by a mass of maritime polar air with drops of between 5 and 10 degrees compared to normal.

What is happening? At a technical level, the cause is found in an anticyclonic ridge that runs from the Azores to Greenland. That has produced a southward undulation of the polar jet. Understanding this pattern is interesting because it is what allows us to have five “extremely cold days for the time” just after the warmest April in the historical series.

There will be a sharp thermal drop with drops of up to 15 degrees if we take last week as a reference. In some inland places, the thermometer will drop below zero (-3 degrees in the upper Duero, the Iberian and Central systems; -5 in the Pyrenees). In addition to the showers, AEMET warns of snow, hail storms and frost.

Just because it’s rare doesn’t mean it’s unpublished, of course. Late frosts at the end of April, May and even June are common in a large area of ​​the peninsular territory. The worst part of these events, however, will be borne by the countryside.

Weren’t we going to have a warmer than normal spring? I said before that the most curious thing may be that this comes after the warmest April on record. Obviously, we are not talking about a “cold wave”: neither by duration, nor by extension, nor (of course) by temperature. But it still draws attention in a context like the current one (with the forecast of AEMET talking about warm spring).

However, and it is worth pausing for a moment, there is some scientific debate (what is known as Francis-Vavrus hypothesis) on whether the fact that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet is having paradoxical consequences: as the temperature gradient reduces, zonal winds weaken and undulations increase.

It is not something that has been proven, but it is plausible and, even on an intellectual level, it is good to keep it in mind for the coming years.

What can we expect? As AEMET saysthis week “probably colder than normal in most of the Peninsula, especially in areas of the west, center and south.”

It’s still early to make a wardrobe change.

Image | Tropical TidBits

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