The island of Cuba woke up this week plunged into darkness. A total collapse of the national electrical grid last Monday left the country paralyzedinterrupting surgeries in hospitals, food rotting in refrigerators due to lack of refrigeration and forcing airlines to suspend their flights. This massive blackout is the sixth that the Caribbean nation has suffered in the last 18 months, an unequivocal symptom of a humanitarian and energy crisis that has hit rock bottom.
Where does it start. The origin of this asphyxiation dates back to the beginning of the year. The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in january by US forces cut off the supply of oil that Venezuela, its main benefactor, sent to the island. Since then, Donald Trump’s government has intensified the energy blockade. However, in the midst of this strangulation, an old ally has decided to make a move on the board: Russia.
The voyage of the lifeboats. Cuba only produces around 40% of the oil it needs for its national demand, historically depending on imports. according to the data provided The Maritime Executive. The island has not received “a single drop” of large-scale fuel since January 9, the date on which the Mexican ship docked Ocean Mariner with 86,000 barrels. Mexico canceled subsequent shipments after giving in to pressure and threats of tariffs from the Trump administration.
Now, all eyes are on two boats:
- seahorse: This Hong Kong-flagged vessel is carrying 200,000 barrels of diesel (or about 27,000 tons of Russian gas, according to maritime intelligence firm TankerTrackers cited by him Financial Times). After being detained for three weeks in the Atlantic, it resumed its march at a speed of 9.9 knots and is expected to reach the western Cuban coast between this weekend and Monday, March 23.
- Anatoly Kolodkin: Flying the Russian flag and owned by the state company Sovcomflot (sanctioned by the US, the EU and the United Kingdom), this colossus set sail from the Russian port of Primorsk on March 8. According to statements from the Kpler firm collected by Guardianis loaded with about 730,000 barrels of crude oil from the Urals. Its arrival is estimated for April 4, although other sources place it earlier.
A fight between the Kremlin and the White House. The arrival of these ships is much more than a commercial transaction; It is a declaration of intent. According to ReutersUS President Donald Trump has raised the tone drastically, telling reporters that he hopes to have “the honor of taking Cuba” and that he can do “whatever he wants” with a nation he considers “very weakened.” Washington’s goal according to New York Timesis to force the departure of the Cuban president, Miguel Díaz-Canel. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also demanded regime change.
Moscow’s response has not been long in coming. Without directly mentioning Trump, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement reaffirming its “unbreakable solidarity” with the “government and brotherly people of Cuba,” condemning attempts at “crude interference” and intimidation on what they called the “Island of Freedom.” as detailed Reuters.
However, in practical terms, the relief for Cubans will be short-lived. Jorge Piñón, researcher at the Energy Institute of the University of Texas interviewed by The Countrywarns that diesel seahorse—vital for generating sets, transportation and agriculture—will only be able to satisfy national consumption for 10 days. “We must remember that inventories are empty,” emphasizes Piñón. Cuba had already reached its “zero hour.”
Military tension and desperate measures. The Caribbean board is red hot. Adding to the diplomatic tension is the military presence. According to The Country, Two US-flagged vessels, one of them identified as part of the Coast Guard (USCGC), were recently prowling near the coast of Holguín, in eastern Cuba.
Asphyxiated by the blockade, the Díaz-Canel government has resorted to unprecedented measures. Havana has allowed for the first time that small private companies import their own fuel. Simultaneously, the regime has invited Cuban exiles to invest and own businesses on the island, while the official newspaper Granma desperately promotes the installation of solar panels, calling them “the light and energy that cannot be blocked.”
The countdown. While the ships seahorse and Anatoly Kolodkin shorten the nautical distance to the port of Matanzas, the outcome of this crisis remains uncertain. The secret negotiations between Havana and the US administration to ease the blockade, confirmed last week, hang by a thread in the face of the aggressive rhetoric of the White House.
For now, the Cuban government is entrenching itself. As published by President Díaz-Canel on social networkCuba will not give in to those who plan to “take over the country, its resources and its assets.” Any external aggressor, the president warned, will encounter “unassailable resistance.” It is a scenario that inevitably awakens the ghosts of the Cold War: the United States tightening the siege and Moscow sending an energy lifeline to its historic ally. Meanwhile, eleven million Cubans look at the sea, waiting for those ships to bring just over 10 days of light.
Image | Unsplash
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