The powerful tomato sector Chinese faces turbulence. After achieving a prominent position in the global market and becoming the largest tomato orchard in the world, the Asian giant has encountered a drop in sales in a strategic market: the European market. More specifically in Italy, where the demand for vegetables from Xinjiang has deflated at the stroke of controversies.
The data is quite eloquent. Only during the third quarter of 2025 did sales of Chinese tomato paste in Italy decrease about 80%.
Tomato ‘made in China’? It comes with taking a look at the maps from World Population Review to understand the enormous weight that China has achieved in the world tomato market. According to its latest data, in 2023 the nation produced about 70.1 million tons. This places it considerably above India, which occupies second place with 20.4 million tons, Turkey (13.3 million), the US (12.4 million) or Egypt (6.2 million), which complete the ‘TOP 5’. Also from Spain, which occupies ninth place, with nearly four million.
Extremaduran farmers warned about the growing threat from China a few months ago, who recognize that the competition exerted by the Asian tomato is already their “biggest problem”. It’s not just that China harvests tons and tons of vegetables, it’s that it does so at such low costs that they make its tomato paste (a fundamental product for the food industry) unbeatable.
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Is he that attractive? Yes. And it is not something that is observed only in Extremadura. Just a year ago Francesco Mutti, CEO of the sauce manufacturer that bears his last name, recognized that much of the cheap tomato paste coming from China is produced in the Xinjiang region with “very, very low labor costs.” something similar they slid in 2016 from Las Marismas (Andalusia): “They ask us for European quality at the price of Chinese tomatoes, something impossible taking into account the costs.”
In practice this means that China exports every year tons and tons of tomato to the European market, which in turn generates a lucrative business. OEC calculate That last year the Asian giant exported processed tomatoes worth 1.21 billion dollars. If we look at its main destinations, Italy occupied a priority place, with a value of 83.8 million dollars.
And what has happened? That although China is a gigantic exporter and has managed to differentiate itself in prices, its product has been compromised by an unexpected factor?: controversy. I told it a few days ago Financial Times.
News about the use of forced labor in Xinjiang (a region that has attracted attention of the UN for alleged human rights violations against the Uyghur minority) and the lack of clarity The labeling with which some Italian companies identify the origin of their products has conditioned Chinese pasta exports, in which large state companies play a crucial role.
Result? Against this backdrop, to which is added the campaign of the Italian agricultural association Coldiretti, China has encountered a problem: a ‘pinch’ in exports that has left it with a huge stock of processed tomatoes.
Financial Times assuresciting data from the platform Tomato News, that the Asian giant has a reserve of between 600,000 and 700,000 tons of tomato paste. To understand its scope, it is equivalent to six months of exports.
Has demand dropped that much? Yes. The data shows that the Western market seems to want to move away from the doubts that shadow the Chinese product. In general, Chinese tomato paste exports decreased by 9% year-on-year during the third quarter of 2025, but if we focus specifically on sales to Western EU countries, that percentage rises to 67%.
In the specific case of Italy, purchases plummeted by 76%. “It is clear that Europe has become a difficult place to export,” recognize to Financial Times Martin Stilwell, head of Tomate News, the source of the data.
Do we handle more data? Yes. There are two other reveals. The first has to do with the value of processed tomato exports to Italy. If between January and September 2024, Chinese customs recorded about 75 million dollars, this year, during the same period, it did not even reach 13.
The other data has to do with the volume of fresh tomato processed to turn it into pasta: 4.8 million tons in 2021, 11 million in 2024 and 3.7 this year (estimate). For Stilwell, the reading is clear: faced with the difficulties of selling, China chooses to cut expenses instead of increasing its stock.
What does China say? That accusations about the use of forced labor in Xinjuang are “a lie” created and propagated by “anti-Chinese forces” to harm the country. The truth is that years ago the US decided to turn its back on imports of tomato paste from that region of the Asian giant and in the case of Italy they weigh somewhat more than the suspicions of the UN.
In 2021 the Caribineri ‘hunted’ a company that labeled its canned tomato as “100% Italian” when in reality it included product from China. “If we assume that Italy has 80 companies related to tomato processing, three, four or five have committed dishonest practices,” Mutti assureswho regrets the damage this does to the reputation of the Italian sector.
Images | Tom Hermans (Unsplash) and Arthur Wang (Unsplash)
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