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The Commercial War Not only is it felt in the bags and currency markets. Its seismic effect is Said clear In the oceans, where the ships that move navigate More than 80% of the World Commercial. And there is one in particular in which the tariff pulse between Washington and Beijing is noticeable: the Pacific. There logistics companies have already perceived how, after the 145% rates rise imposed by Donald Trump to China, the Container reserves and the maritime traffic that leaves the Chinese ports towards the US He is losing bellows.
The big question is: What comes now?
From the offices to the ports. International trade has a great operations scenario and is neither the parquet nor the offices of the CEO. No. They are the oceans. United Nations calculates that More than 80% International trade moves by sea, on board ships that may be slower than airplanes, but also offer a much cheaper transport alternative.
Hence, when a few weeks ago Trump presented his famous Tariff tablewith a long list of rates for merchandise exports to the US, one of the places where more was felt Its effect were the seas and ports. In early April the container reserves for the United States fell more than 60%. Something expected if you consider that many companies They had advanced Your operations to anticipate the coup.
Looking at the Pacific. That first shopping war agated the markets, but soon softened when Trump announced a 90 -day truce which set a global tariff base of “only” 10%. Where the tension was not relaxed in China. Beijing and Washington engaged in a tariff pulse that derived (for the moment) in an escalation of the rates that both countries impose on exports of the other: USA applied 145% To China and this replied with 125%that in some cases, including agricultural products, It rises to 135%.
The impact of that rise in costs on the maritime flow of merchandise between the two countries soon noticed. In the middle of the month South China Morning Post (SCMP) I spoke now From a puncture in container traffic on transpacific routes, travel cancellation and a collapse in load reserves for the following weeks between 30% and 60% in China and 10-20% in the rest of Asia. The reason: US tariffs complicated the viability of Chinese exports.
And that are major words if one takes into account that, like Remember the CNBCChina represents about 30% of all imports via US container and more than half (54%) of those from Asia. Before the pandemic, in 2018, it even monopolized 67%. There are now transpacific shipping companies in charge of that commercial flow that have resorted to Blank Sailing and canceled trips.
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And what is the stage now? Complicated. Hapag-Lloyd German shipping company He just recognized to Five days that has registered a cancellation of reserves “from China to the US” of around 30% and the CNBC warned On Tuesday of a fall in the flow of Chinese ships in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Specifically, he points out that the southern docks of California have registered a 29% collapse in the traffic of containers with Chinese origin.
Yesterday Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, went further and He contributed a fact Even more devastating in X: “In the three weeks after the tariffs, maritime container reserves from China to the United States have decreased more than 60% throughout the industry.”
If we talk about forecasts, the flow of ships expected for the week of May 4 to 10 will register a major year -on -year fallof 44%. What does that translate? In many less containers. The week of April 20 those US ports received 22 ships. This week 12. Translated into Teus, the large unit of load measurement, assumes that the week of May 4 to 10 will be 62,668 compared to 120,608 scored from April 20 to 26. Half.
“Shipments have interrupted”. “I am hearing direct retailers and manufacturers here in the US that many have interrupted all shipments from China,” Recognize Axios Gene Seroka, executive of the Los Angeles terminal. “It is likely that in the coming weeks we will see two thirds of the normal load, or less.” The expert admits Also a fall of between 8 and 10% in US exports in recent months and does not rule out that the trend is exacerbated by Chinese tariffs.
Beyond China. That the commercial war has weighed the demand for containers from China to the US does not mean that the trend is the same for the entire region. On the contrary. Hapag-Lloyd is noticing for example more than reservations from China to the US. In Your interview with Five daysone of its managers, Nils Hauct, also speaks of a “considerable increase” in the volume of reserves from Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand.
And it makes enough sense that it is. Not long ago the investment bank Goldman Sachs He already warned that, taking advantage of the 90 -day tariff truce approved by Trump, there are companies that have begun to look for alternatives outside China. And they do it looking at neighboring countries, included in Southeast Asia.
“In the short term, the activity in Southeast Asia is recovering due to the production output from China to where there is available capacity,” Write. Moreover, in its report it points out that a part (20%) of Chinese manufacturers have resorted to their facilities outside China to benefit from their tariffs.
Are there more consequences? Yes, there are. On other fronts. The puncture in the demand has aggravated the fall in the prices of freight on routes such as Shanghai-Los Angeles. Supply chain Precise That this goes on the rate of container rates for Chinese exports have collapsed 28%, marking their worst exercise start of the last two decades.
The commercial war is also felt on other fronts of the logistics sector, such as storage or road transport that provides services in the ports. “When comparing the amount of truck loads available with vehicles, we see an abrupt fall: more than 700,000 charges have evaporated nationwide in the last week compared to the previous two,” Recognize the CNBC Ken Adamo, of the company Dat Freight & Analytics.
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