The last two days of the bag have been worse than 99.6% of every day since 1929. It is as chungo as it sounds

There was omens that placed today as another “black Monday.” The original occurred on October 28, 1929 and was one of the days More devastating In the history of Wall Street when the Dow Jones index collapsed 12.8% in a single day, losing billions of dollars in market value. The consequences then lasted decades. In the end it will not be so much, But “almost”. In fact, the last days will be recorded as one of the worst of the history of financial markets.

An unprecedented collapse. In a surprising turn for Wall Street, the recent wave of tariffs promoted by President Donald Trump has triggered one of the most severe stock market collapses in recent history, making more than thunder from 5 billion dollars in share value in just two days and dragging Global markets.

Nasdaq 100 entered GUBBER TERRITORYthe Commodities They collapsed and investors in corporate bonds ran to buy Insurance against defaults. The magnitude of the impact, fueled by rates up to 50% imposed on dozens of countries, even exceeded the worst forecasts, and marked the breakdown for a financial ecosystem that for decades was one of the main beneficiaries of presidential power in the United States.

Trump, strategic chaos and indifference. Bloomberg had that, far from showing concern, Trump seems to be hugged the turbulence Stock as a necessary price to correct the imbalances of global trade. In private and public, he insists on standing firm, and has begun to focus his attention on assets such as 10 -year Treasury bonds and oil pricescelebrating their falls without recognizing that they could precess a recession.

The markets and the breakdown. After weeks of speculation about whether the tariff threats were not real, investors finally accepted the Scenario severity. More than twenty previous ads had been nothing, but the 11% collapse In two days he forced Wall Street to react. Besent, who allegedly had to moderate Trump, has been harshly criticized for not preventing such a disaster.

Although some still expect the president to reconsider if the pain persists (today has said that it will not turn back), the fall of the Asian bags (with collapses up to 7.9%) and the Activated firewall In Japan they reflect that increasingly global destabilization.

Almost black Monday. As we said, the stock market has continued this morning, and although the worst omen were not fulfilled, the situation is equally disastrous. After confirming Trump that It will not go back In its aggressive commercial policy, defended as “necessary medicine”, the main world indices recorded dramatic collapses: The S&P 500 fell 2.8 % (The worst performance three days for the index since October 1987, or the Eleventh of all timebeing the tenth and twelfth during the great depression), the Nasdaq 3.1 %, and the Hang Kong Hang Sang index sank 13 %, its worst day of the century.

In EuropeStoxx 600 lost 5.3 % and the German Dax briefly exceeded 10 % drop in opening. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of recession in the United States at 45 %citing the abrupt hardening of financial conditions after tariffs to many of the key commercial partners.

“Victoria” by Trump. Despite the warnings, Trump has celebrated in networks that tariffs “will bring tens of billions to the country” and described the situation as “something beautiful to contemplate.” The Financial Times counted that the fear of a self -inflicted recession grows even between figures related to the president: the investor Bill Ackman warned of an “economic nuclear winter” and Stanley Druckenmiller He criticized any rate above 10 %.

On the other sidewalk, the secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besent, minimized stock tremors such as “short -term reactions” and reaffirmed that the White House You will keep your course. The immediate reality, however, is that systemic collapse of actions, Commodities and coins that threatens to unleash a global recession caused from Washington.

Memories of the past. References to Black Monday, 1929 and others collapses Historical have not been long in coming. During that decade, millions of Americans invested in the stock market, many buying actions on credit with margins of just 10%, which amplified panic when prices began to fall.

As a direct consequence, between 1929 and 1932, the market lost about 89% of its valueunemployment in the United States exceeded 25%, more than 9,000 banks broke, and the country’s GDP was reduced in almost 30%. That stock market crisis not only plunged the United States into The great depressionbut it had economic and social repercussions worldwide, altering the global economic order throughout the 1930s.

Comparisons. We are not in the same box, of course, but The data They are equally worrisome. Let’s think that the last two days of stock market are worse than 99.6% of the days of the stock exchange since 1929. Perhaps, many analysts agree that the current stock market situation caused by the Trump tariff offensive and the intensification of the trade war can be compared, in terms of volatility, loss of investment confidence and systemic risk, with the 2008 global financial crisisalthough with fundamental differences in its causes and nature.

As in 2008, markets have experienced abrupt collapses: those More than 5 billion dollars who vanished from the value of US actions In just two daysand the Nasdaq 100 entered the bassist territory, which reflects a collapse of the feeling of similar or very similar to panic lived after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.

A deliberate crisis. Also, as then, corporate bond markets are showing voltage signals. However, while in 2008 the epicenter was the collapse of the financial system and the mortgage market, the current stock market has a clearly political component: it originates from unilateral commercial policy decisions, which introduce uncertainty about the economic direction of the country.

For its part, unlike of 1929where the overvaluation of the market and the uncontrolled speculation were the trigger, now the market seems victim of a deliberate strategy that challenges the rules of global free trade. In that sense, the most direct parallelism would not be so much with the “Black Monday” of 29but with the initial effects of the Commercial War Between the United States and China in 2018, now amplified at a much larger scale and with a policy that, far from seeking stability, seems embrace The conflict as an economic tool.

The domino effect. Here comes the leg that ends up influencing the lives of millions of people. As the actions fall, the blow extends to consumption. A fact to understand it: the elite that has most actions also represents about 50% of the expense In the United States, which predicts adverse effects for the real economy.

Here are large companies such as Dell, Delta Air Lines and Constellation Energy, giants who have seen losing almost half of its value These days, and that, sooner or later, will be reflected in people’s pockets. In this regard, Bloomberg explained that volatility reached levels not seen since Covid confinements, and billions of initial public offers and financial agreements have already been frozen. In fact, the index of fear of the market, the vix, He shotmarking the generalized concern.

Theories behind chaos. If there is a question that is repeated in a stock key these days it is “for what?” While some They justify policies Trump as an attempt to recover manufacturing jobs, finance tax cuts and protect strategic sectors, others warn that current damage may not have future reward.

There are also those who, Like Evan Brown by UBSrecognize long -term objectives, but admit that the immediate cost is severe. The fall of rates and oil prices offers some relief to consumers without stock market investments, but in Wall Street the fear that these descents anticipate a deep recession will grow. In fact, oil drop has Sunk the actions Of the main fracking companies such as Diamondback Energy and Devon Energy, leaving investors trapped in losses. Even the bitcoin, which had exceeded $ 100,000 Nothing does not escape the stock market and He joined to the mass of mass sales.

Unpredictable consequences. Thus, being so close to that abyss that means placing itself on the same step that in 1929 opens a new and uncertain scenario. Trump, who in his first mandate seemed to measure his success for the Dow Jones index, now acts with Total detachment Towards Wall Street. While some believe that this shock strategy will bring future benefits, others see it as a reckless commitment that could have lasting economic consequences.

The situation is as volatile at the moment that situations are given as lived Monday, where the market He shot up For a headline attributed to Kevin Hasett … and now nobody knows where he came from, and the markets collapsed again. We talk about an 8% increase and then A 3.5% drop In seconds.

In short, that “graphic of death” of The tariffs It represents a declaration of economic war that has left US financial capital in front of a new era of uncertainty and loss of privileges, and the entire world in a shock state with unpredictable implications.

Image | RawpixelRyan Cummings Analysis

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