Washington and Moscow maintained an unwritten rule which has now been broken: if a test was carried out, the world had to find out. For decades, the global strategic balance was sustained by fragile agreements, mutual distrust and red lines that no one wanted to openly cross. When those limits have started to fadeeven the slightest hint can alter the stability that seemed guaranteed. This is how the accusations begin nuclear.
A tremor reopens the ghost. The story we tell it last week, but now, a priori, there is more data to support Washington’s rhetoric. The United States has toughened its accusation that China conducted an underground nuclear test low-yield on June 22, 2020 near Lop Nur, Xinjiang, supporting in detected seismic data by a station in Kazakhstan that recorded an event of approximate magnitude 2.75.
Washington maintains something that for them is evidence: that the signal cannot fit with an earthquake or mining explosions, and that Beijing would have used “decoupling” techniques to dampen the seismic signal and make detection more difficult, although it admits that it cannot precisely determine the performance of the supposed detonation.
The treaty that does not bind. The background of everything is the Treaty of the Complete Ban on Nuclear Tests of 1996, the same one that prohibits nuclear explosions but has never fully come into force due to lack of ratifications, despite the fact that the great powers claim to respect its initial spirit.
For its part, the international supervisory body detected two small seismic events separated by 12 seconds on the indicated date, but also recognized that They were too weak to attribute them with complete certainty to a nuclear explosion, which leaves the dispute in a technical field where the public evidence is, to say the least, ambiguous.
Strategic pressure without New START. The accusation comes after expiration of the last treaty that limited the strategic arsenals of the United States and Russia, and at a time when the Trump administration seeks to promote a new agreement that also include China.
From that perspective, publicly detailing the alleged test can function as diplomatic leverage to force Beijing to sit down to negotiate. At the same time, it serves to Washington to open another perhaps more disturbing scenario: to warn that it will not accept to sit idly by what it has called an “intolerable disadvantage” if others carry out low-yield tests while the United States maintains its moratorium in force since 1992. In other words, whether it was a real nuclear test or not, the powers seem be taking positions now that there are no pacts involved.
The debate about pressing the button. In fact, Trump has hinted that the United States could resume tests “on equal terms” if China and Russia are also carrying them out, a possibility that worries arms control experts who fear breaking the post-Cold War taboo and trigger a new test race.
The discussion, therefore, is not only technical, but political: if Washington responds with its own detonations, it could legitimize other powers to do the same, eroding decades of informal containment.
Nuclear balance in transformation. Although the Chinese arsenal (estimated around 600 warheads) is still lower than that of Russia and the United States, its rapid expansion It worries Washington, which interprets any low-yield tests as part of a strategy to modernize and perfect its nuclear force.
Beijing denies having crossed the line and defends that it respects its moratorium. And, meanwhile, the debate over clandestine testing reveals an increasingly fragile international system, one where distrust and opacity technology weigh almost as much as the weapons themselves.
Image | Planet Labs, Google Earth
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