The two most important weather models in the world are discussing whether Santander is going to freeze next week. And the cold is winning

Where has all the cold gone? So far this fall (with the sole exception of Siberia), temperatures have been relatively mild on all continents. And it seems that the situation is going to continue like this: it is true that the forecasts speak of a progressive decrease in temperatures in the southeast of Canada, the eastern United States and northern Europe; but no model paints a scenario that is particularly cold (except some very long term prediction).

However, all eyes are on the polar vortex. If the models are right, it is very possible that the vortex will experience an unprecedented disturbance in November, leading to an interesting weather period starting in December.

“There is no way this is fulfilled.” While November continues with its strange meteorology, the models draw increasingly strange scenarios. At this point in the week, we cannot rule out that on the 18th and 19th we have a more than considerable winter storm with the ‘beast from the east‘looming over Western Europe.

In the next few hours we will have a war between models: The American marks a cold entry on Santander, the European said no. Little by little, the two seem to be converging towards a cold scene. It’s too early to say, but in a very few hours the daisy will be shedding its leaves.

Anyway, the central issue is that all of this is minute sin.

The breaking of the vortex. Except for that event in the middle of next week, autumn will continue to be very warm and mild on almost all continents. However, this could change if sudden stratospheric warming appears. That is, the vortex breaks.

Sudden stratospheric warming? To understand it simply, we have to remember that the atmosphere is a kind of “lasagna of air layers” and each of them follows its own logic. That is, they work quite differently and independently.

As far as it affects us: the circulation of air in the troposphere (the one closest to the surface) and the circulation in the stratosphere (the layer directly above) are related, yes; But, in general terms, they each do their own thing.

During the “sudden stratospheric warming“, a part of the troposphere warms rapidly and, as a consequence, invades the stratosphere, causing a profound alteration of the circulation at high altitude. That is, for a few days, everything turns upside down.

And what happens? The most common consequence of this is that the polar vortex weakens and may break down. The polar (arctic) vortex is a current of air that runs from west to east around the north pole and contains cold air at high latitudes.

When this current is strong and stable, preventing it from flowing towards places like Spain. If the vortex It destabilizes and its winds lose strength (due to, for example, “sudden warming”), it is relatively common for cold air masses to escape on their way south.

What if it doesn’t break? In reality, the vortex does not even need to break. It only needs to move from the Arctic region to lower latitudes. By moving a huge mass of cold air with it, the result is always very similar: an icy cold that can turn any country upside down (even the best prepared ones).

And that seems to be what we are going to see. It’s hard to know if it will affect us or not, but there’s no doubt that the late fall weather is getting “interesting.”

Image | Meteociel

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