In the two long months he has in the Oval Office, Donald Trump has demonstrated that he did not joke when he said that his favorite word is “tariff.” The Commercial War in which it has been engaged, with ads and against ads, attacks and backgrounds that now focus the focus In China, it is however affecting what could well be the second header word for the Republican leader: the dollar, which faces its own historical chapter, in full depreciation against other assets such as The euro or the Swiss Franco.
In the background, there are voices that already speak of a trusted crisis In the American currency, a weakening of its global position as a safe shelter or even They wonder If we go at the end of the golden era of the green ticket.
Dollar slopes. In full tariff war and between recession drums In the US and loss of investor confidence, the US dollar does not go through its best moment. Although The partial truce 90 days decreed on Wednesday by Trump has paid the falls in the stock market, the trend is different if we talk about public debt and especially dollars. Green tickets They have deflated in front of currencies such as the euro or the Swiss Franco. And quite clear, besides.
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What do the figures say? After the dollar suffered yesterday its worse day In about a decade, the Euro is already 1.14 dollars. You have to go back several years ago to find it in such low levels in front of the community currency. As for the Swiss currency, another key reference, Reuters remembers That the green ticket has fallen 1.2%, to 0.814 francs, for the first time since the beginning of 2015.
All this with him and reaching his Maximum of several months and with gold moving in Historical maximums While investors are looking for safe shelters, precisely what (until not so ago) offered green tickets. “There has been a marked tendency to sell US dollars flowing through the general markets and towards classical shelter assets, with the dollar losing that position,” Confirms Reuters recently Chris Weston, from Pepperstone.
Why is it important? Because the dollar is more than the currency with which the Americans make their purchases. Is behind the vast majority of transactions, acts world reference and has allowed the US to be financed at low types. “Half the world is stunned looking and the other horror about what will happen to the dollar as a universally accepted currency and vault key of the global financial system,” Explain to The country Juan Ignacio Crespo.
“It is very unusual in the US”. The dollar situation has caught the attention of other experts, such as Nick Timiraos, economic correspondent for The Wall Street Journal And who yesterday shared In X some reflections on the drift of the yields of the treasure bonds at 30 years and the weakening of the dollar.
“Rises in yields and low in currencies are common in emerging markets. We saw it in the United Kingdom during the debacle of Truss. But it is very unusual in the US. There are only four other episodes in the last 30 years in which the dollar depreciated more than 1.5% with an increase in return to more than 10 basic points, ” Timiraos collects citing the Evercore ISI firm. Its conclusion: the data suggests the end of ‘exceptionalism’ of American growth and a loss of attractiveness of dollars.
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Crisis of trust in the dollar? That is the idea that appears for some time among some analysts, such as Francesco Pesole, of ING, which after the fall of the dollar to a minimum of three years in front of the euro, It was pronounced with roundness in Financial Times: “The question of a possible crisis of trust in the dollar has definitely been resolved: we are experiencing it with all its force.”
It is not the first to point in that direction. Monday Reuters warned that there were investors and analysts concerned with the perspective that Trump’s protectionist policies, changes in the current global economic order in the last decades and the growing debt The US ended up undermining the attractiveness of the dollar, with even risk of a crisis of trust in the green ticket.
End of the ‘golden age’ of the green ticket? That is the question he launched to Benjamin Dubois, head of Edmond’s coverage management of Rothschild, in An analysis collected by The economist. It slides that the fall of the currency “could be the beginning of a deeper underlying trend.”
“Trump’s second mandate could make the dollar lose the dominant status he has enjoyed during the last decade,” Point out The expert before citing factors such as the depreciation of Trump’s currency or commercial war.
The answer does not seem clear. For Per Jansson, vice governor of the Central Bank of Sweden, It is not predictable However, the US reaches the point that the status of the dollar changes. And he warns: “It would be a great change for the world economy … and basically create chaos.” The truth is that Trump has spoken against attempts to weaken the currency, which still has in his favor the support of the strong economy of the United States, the markets and the lack of a short -term alternative.
Reindustrialization. One of The wishes of Trump, which already connects with his first presidential mandate, is to enhance The manufacturing industry of the US. And in that effort the currency and its strength also play a key role. After remembering the restructuring of the global financial system raised by S. Miran, Donald Trump advisor, Dubois remembers: “It is based on the conviction that the dollar must be depreciated to allow US reindustrialization.” The Republican himself has pointed out that a weaker dollar would also benefit exports.
Images | Timis Alexandra (UNSPLASH) and Gage Skidmore (Flickr)
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