The fuel crisis is putting airlines in check. And Ryanair already knows where to start cutting: Spain

Your flight has been cancelled.

Since the United States and Israel attacked Iran for the first time two months ago, fear of a new oil crisis has skyrocketed. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has put fuel supplies in check since then and the aviation sector has been one of the most affected. Among the consequences, we have seen a serious increase in the cost of flights but also cancellations. Ryanair is clear about where it will cut flights from if necessary.

What has happened? The CEO of Ryanair has launched a new threat: “if the situation continues, the first place we have in mind are the Spanish regional airports.” The words are from Eddie Wilson and have been collected by the newspaper ABC. That “if the situation continues” refers, of course, to the oil blockades in the Strait of Hormuz.

And the company has once again raised its threats against the Government of Spain. Coinciding with the day in which Aena has distributed dividends among its partners, Ryanair has taken the opportunity to confirm that it will cut 1.2 million places this summer available at Spanish airports. And asked about how they face a possible fuel shortage, Wilson has once again taken the opportunity to question the viability of their activities at Spanish regional airports.

What has been confirmed? Ryanair has been warning for months that it was going to cut operations this summer at Spanish airports if the Government did not reverse the increase in Aena airport taxes in the 2027-2031 cycle. Last Monday, the airline was ratified although it did not make it clear which airports will be the most punished.

They do point out that with the extension of these cuts, in 18 months they have stopped offering three million places in our country (once the summer cut is consolidated). On the contrary, Morocco and Italy will grow by 11% and 9%, respectively. Of course, it is true that Regional airports are suffering with the departure of Ryanair but the size of the cut is misleading because, at the same time, its commitment to larger airports has been maintained or even expanded.

And the new threat? The new threat is the possibility of scrapping more flights if Ryanair runs out of fuel. It seems logical that when prioritizing fuel, the company opts for larger airports where the flight occupancy rate will be higher or there is a greater chance of this being the case.

In the month of April we have seen many cancellations from both American companies and United either Delta even the Asian ones like Air New Zealandpassing through the entire European framework as SAS or the Lufthansa Group, Wizz Air and easyJet (among others). And the CEO of easyJet already publicly warned that the situation in Europe could become seriously complicated starting in mid-May.

How much real threat and imposted threat is there in Wilson’s words? It is difficult to know because it is impossible to know how much fuel Ryanair has or to what extent the company is willing to pay for kerosene before losing money. (or not earning what they consider enough).

Because? The air sector is one of the most affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The increase in fuel prices losses are skyrocketing and Lufthansa will cancel more than 20,000 flights according to Financial Times to patch the rise in prices. The result, as we see, is fewer flights, more expensive flights or airlines that take advantage of the reduction in supply to tighten the nuts more for the passengers.

They are the consequences of moving with a type of fuel that very little stock is handled in warehouses. The kerosene used by airplanes is delicate to store because it can quickly lose its properties. And International Air Transport Association (IATA), already warned that rebuild damaged refining capacity in the Middle East will take months.

The forecasts for summer are not good. And it is clear that, if cuts have to be made, they will be cut where the least benefit is obtained.

Photo | Ryanair and Gabriele Merlino

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