“A sirloin or hamburger will become luxury products, retail and restaurants “. The phrase It is from Alejandro Hermo, CEO of Goiko, and gives a clear idea of how the restoration has attended for months to the Encrying of beef in Spain. The deep mismatch between supply and demand has made the price of the genre rise. Quite. And in a short time. They show them CPI data and confirm it in the sector itself, where some manager assures that since January 2024 the cost of meat has shot more than 65%.
“We are in a perfect storm,” warns.
What happened? That beef has become considerably increasing over the last months. The sector warns it and it is confirmed The INE, The OCU or the Ministry of Agriculture, which in its Sector reportsupdated every week, it brings a clear photo of the prices with which the wholesalers operate.
According to His last balancelast week the year (young veal) was paid in Spain at € 686/100 kg, 1.3% more than seven days before and 28.3% more than a year ago. And it is not an isolated case. In the case of cows with the denomination of origin, the price increase with respect to 2024 is 28.4%, of 23% if we talk about girlfriends and 24.4% in the case of the ZR category of eight to twelve months.
Is there more data? Yes. In February the IPC of beef recorded an interannual rise higher than 10%considerably above the general data or that of food as a whole, which It did not reach 2%. From the sector they are even more categorical. A few days ago Alejandro Hermo published An analysis On that same issue in LinkedIn in which he ensures that over “the last months” the costs have shot 30%, and “almost (have) duplicated in just over two years.”
“Inflation in beef has not stopped and has even gone worse,” It coincided In mid -March Jorge Castelló, director of Carpisa Foods, in an interview with Electomista. “Since January 2024, today the meat has increased its price between 65 and 70%. And in what we have been taking 25%. We have a galloping inflation.” There is who warns that the situation will get worse when the prices paid by wholesalers in March are transferred to the super.
And what is the reason? As usually happens in these cases, the trend is not explained by a single factor, but by The sum of several. Hermo points a few, but the main one is the mismatch between supply and demand. The first, Explainit is “very limited” after the sacrifice of cattle several years ago for the rise in costs and the low price of milk, while the second is marked by a increase in consumption in homes and demand from abroad.
How to solve it? The problem is that adjusting the supply and demand to correct the imbalances in the market will not be a simple task. Not fast. “Raising cows has a cycle of two to four years”, remember. Of backdrop is the effect of drought on the farms and the blow that the Blue tongue and the Epizotic hemorrhagic disease (EHE). Its shadow is felt double both for its impact in Spain and by the one suffered in the European livestock cabin, which complicates to bring cattle on the other side of the Pyrenees.
Have we lost win? “The origin is in the shortage of supply. There are no animals available because the field is empty and this situation will take long to recover,” Castelló warned When asked for the reasons for inflation. “The sacrificed animals have not been replaced and many resources would have to be invested to repopulate the field for high prices. To this shortage, in addition, an increasingly high demand is added in the beef market.”
The Eurostat cattle census, collected by The countrygives an idea of to what extent the Spanish cabin and other neighboring countries have been reduced. Between 2022 and 2024, years marked by the health crisis, the drought, the increase in the feed and the shortage of pastures, Spain went from 6.45 million heads of cattle to 6.17 million, 4.4% less. In France, with a much higher census, the fall was 3.3%, in Germany of 4.9%, in Ireland of 3.7%and in Poland 4%.
What can we expect? Hermo remember That “less and fewer people want to devote to livestock”, a trend that relates to the hardness of the sector, but also with “administrative obstacles” imposed by administrations. The result, he warns, is that the restoration faces a “perfect storm” that will force him to raise his prices “pure survival.” “A sirloin or hamburger will become a luxury product, retail and restaurant.”
In his opinion, a national plan is urgent to “foster livestock”, adopt measures to prevent other countries from outside Europe to carry out “subsidized exports'” or, in case the previous measures do not work, “open the hand” so that the sector can import from countries with greater offer.
“Animals will always be, but they will be increasing Add Castelló.
Images | Kin Li (UNSPLASH) and Department of agriculture
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