A new report from the consulting firm Jefferies Equity Research paints an even more terrible picture than we expected for the immediate future of the memory crisis. These components have already risen in price extraordinarily in the last nine months, but wait: it hasn’t ended there by any means.
The rest of 2026 will be horrible. According to its analysts, memory prices will experience an increase of between 40 and 50% in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the current quarter. But the increases will not stop there, because in the fourth quarter, between 30 and 40% price increases are expected compared to the third quarter.
Let’s do the math. According to this prediction, the prices of memory modules for our PCs will be absolutely exorbitant:
- 16 GB DDR4 module: the current price is around 139 euros. Applying these increases, in the third quarter this product will cost up to 209 euros in the third quarter, and up to 292 euros in the room.
- 16 GB DDR5 module: the current price is around 240 euros. Applying the same percentages, in the third quarter we would pay up to 360 euros for it, and in the fourth quarter up to 504 euros.
Bad for (almost) everyone. These increases will therefore make prices much worse than they are now, and although we have given the example of memory modules for the PC, this problem extends to all types of electronic products that have this component. Mobile phones, tablets, graphics cards, Smart TVs, routers, consoles (Hello Steam Machine) or cars will also be affected, and this could therefore significantly impact the future prices of these products. Let them tell Apple: we could see how this and other companies are forced to raise prices again.
2027 will be bad too. This report also reveals that the crisis will persist in 2027, although the growth curve will reduce slightly: increases of between 40 and 45% are expected from year to year. It is a very bad figure, but not as bad as what is expected for this second half of 2026.
Why does the crisis last so long?. AI is to blame for this memory crisis, and what is happening is that manufacturers are not only unable to cope: the “little memory” they are manufacturing is being reserved for long-term contracts. Micron, for example, has already signed 16 strategic contracts with large firms and hyperscalers, and in the global market 50% of what is manufactured is already reserved for those large clients. That percentage could rise to 70%, they say at Jefferies, which will make it even more complicated (or rather, more expensive) to access memory modules for PCs, laptops, consoles or mobile phones.
The end of the crisis, in 2028? This analysis also indicates that 2028 could finally see prices begin to fall slightly. The reason: a slowdown in demand and a slight increase in supply of between 15 and 20%.
China manufacturers won’t save us. He Chinese manufacturer CXMT it seemed the great hope for consumers, but as seen at Computex, their prices they are similar to those of Micron, Samsung or SK Hynix. Apple is trying to work with that Chinese firm and is pushing for the US I took it out from your “Entity List”, but it remains to be seen what will happen. The only advantage of this and other Chinese manufacturers such as YMTC is that they do have modules in their inventory, but most are intended for domestic consumption by Chinese firms.
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