The repeated incursions Russian aerials in NATO territory They have triggered a diplomatic and military escalation that places the Atlantic Alliance against one of its greatest dilemmas since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. First They were dronesand then several MIG-31 fighters next to an IL-20M recognition plane in the Baltic without flight plan. The perception, increasingly widespread in Europe, is very dangerous: the Kremlin seeks to test The allied disposition to respond firmly.
The internal debate. They remembered In politician that incidents have caused urgent consultations Under article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, a rarely invoked mechanism that reflects the seriousness of the situation. Estonios, Poles and Czechs have claimed Hard responsesincluding the possibility of demolishing Russian aircraft in future violations.
The Czech President Peta Pavel, former NATO Military High Command, affirmed that Moscow must face “military consequences.” In Tallin, Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna insisted in which to defend the sky of Estonia is equivalent to defending that of the entire alliance. Instead, figures such as German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni They alert the risk To fall into the “climbing trap” lying by Putin, aware that a demolition could be interpreted as Casus Belli.
Parallel messages. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, adopted An unusually overwhelming tone When declaring That “every centimeter of the territory” must be protected and that, after clear warnings, the option of folding an intruder plane “is on the table.” His words resonated With Trump’sthat in the UN General Assembly he affirmed that the “yes” allies should shoot against Russian airplanes if they enter their airspace.
The support of the US President was held in Warsaw, where Minister Radosław Sikorski He replied with a laconic “Roger That”. The coincidence of speeches between Brussels and Washington (although von der Leyen has no direct military authority) transmits to Moscow that there is an emerging consensus in favor of harden the rules of the game.
A 12 -minute pulse. The most symbolic case was the starring By three mig-31 Russians intercepted by two Italian F-35 in Estonia. During more than ten minutesRussian fighters remained within NATO airspace, an unprecedented duration. The Italians performed the standard interception maneuvers and, surprisingly, the Russian pilots responded With a friendly gesturegreeting from the cabin.
Although the meeting concluded without shots, in Tallin and in Brussels a immediate debate: Why didn’t it acted with the same forcefulness as Türkiye in 2015When did a Russian plane tear down in just 17 seconds after a border rape? The difference illustrates the current caution of NATO, trapped between the need to show determination and the fear of an incident that disappoints an uncontrollable escalation.
Hybrid ambiguity. The Russian authorities They have denied Deliberate violations and attribute incidents to errors, but at the same time suggest that they respond to Ukrainian attacks in Crimea, which is equivalent to accusing NATO of direct complicity. European diplomats who met with Kremlin say that the Russian delegation He took exhaustive noteswhich reinforces the impression that Moscow uses these incursions as calculated pressure tools.
Experts like the Lithuanian president Gypsyėda They point that Russia “is testing our preparation and our solidarity.” In this sense, aerial incursions are part of a hybrid repertoire that includes espionage, cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns and symbolic maneuvers in the Baltic borders, such as balloons and buoys displaced in border rivers.
The strategic dilemma. NATO has reinforced surveillance with the operation Eastern Sentry and maintains Eurofighter, F-16 and F-35 fighters deployed in the region, but still lacks clear and homogeneous confrontation rules. The ultimate decision to shoot falls to governments nationals that provide airplanes, which generates a mosaic of interpretations and possible “caveats” that could leave countries as Estonia in vulnerable situation.
Meanwhile, Tallin has decided to increase its military expenditure to an average 5.4% of GDP Annual until 2029, a record figure in the alliance, although without acquiring its own fighters, which maintains the dependence of the ally air coverage.
On the edge of the red line. In short, the Crossing speeches reflects a paradox: while Voices increase In favor of demolition as immediate response to airspace violations, other leaders remember that Putin could be looking for that incident to legitimize a victimization and victimization narrative Sow divisions internal in NATO.
If you want, the situation recalls that the defense of the European sky is no longer a mere exercise of routine interceptions, but A critical front of the ongoing hybrid war. At stake, in addition, there is not only the security of Estonia or Poland, but the credibility of the alliance as guarantor that every centimeter of its territory, in the words of Von der Leyen itself, will continue being inviolable.
Image | Fedor Leukhin, Andrey Korchag
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