Several software stocks are falling just since Claude Cowork It’s going viral. Those collected by iShares Expanded Tech Software ETFwhich has a cumulative drop of 6.4% in the last five days.
It has also been a few days since OpenAI announced that it is going to introduce ads on ChatGPT.
Why important. It’s not just that Claude Cowork is cool and works well. The thing is that OpenAI’s business model is beginning to show cracks while Anthropic gains ground where it matters: in companies that really pay.
In figures. Claude dominates 54% of the AI programming market. In business environments controls 42%more than double that of OpenAI. This last piece of information is from six months ago, presumably now it has gotten worse. Cowork has only made accelerate the trend.
20% of Anthropic’s revenue comes from Claude Code alone. Meanwhile, ChatGPT quota has gone from 87% to 64% in a year.
The background. According to historical data since 2001 that collect Sherwood Newswhen the software ETF falls at least 5% in a month, the S&P 500 usually also falls between 5% and 6%, but this time it has not been like that: it has risen 1%.
The overall market going up while software goes down has only happened 28 times in over twenty years. And three of them have been this week.
Between the lines. Doug O’Laughlin of SemiAnalysis explains it this way in Sherwood News: “Claude Code is the ChatGPT moment repeated. You have to try it to understand it.” His argument is devastating for traditional software.
Workflows, interfaces, integrations are going to stop mattering. The only valuable thing will be access to the data via API. Everything else is generated instantly.
Yes, but. OpenAI urgently needs money to build its data centers. And it does not have an ecosystem of services like Google or Meta to finance itself. Hence the newly announced announcements for ChatGPT, which will arrive “in the coming weeks” as announced on Friday. Clearly it is a way to better monetize the hundreds of millions of free users, and with that cash flow sustain their growth and spending.
On the other hand, Claude Code is powerful, but not perfect: as Kelsey Piper said99% of the time using Claude Code is like having a magical, tireless genie, but 1% of the time it’s like yelling at a pet for peeing on the couch. He keeps making mistakes, sometimes gets stuck on complex tasks.
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And now what. For software companies, O’Laughlin’s message is devastating: get out of “information work” as soon as possible. If your differentiation is doing things faster or with better design, you’re done. The only thing that will matter is who has the data and who controls access via API.
As summarized Axios in his analysis of the weekit’s unclear who wins the AI race. But the pace is accelerating with no signs of slowing down. And what is increasingly clear is who is losing it.
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Featured image | Anthropic
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The news
Claude has become more than just a rival to OpenAI: he is its new existential threat
was originally published in
Xataka
by
Javier Lacort
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