It seems like it was centuries ago, but until not too long ago the Arctic was seen as an inhospitable territory, more associated with school maps and scientific expeditions than with great power disputes. However, accelerated thaw and the changes in routes navigation have turned that apparently marginal region into one of the most sensitive spaces on the geopolitical board, one where decisions made today can define the economic and military balance of the coming decades.
Stop being peripheral. Yes, for decades, the Arctic was a space remote, frozen and secondary in global geopolitics, a natural border that separated blocks rather than connecting them, but accelerated thaw has transformed that white void into a strategic corridor where trade, resources and military deterrence overlap.
What was once a physical boundary is now an emerging highway that shortens thousands of kilometers between Asia, Europe and North America, and that simple climate change is reordering strategic priorities of the great powers at a speed that has caught many governments off guard.
China and the Polar Route. China has identified before anyone else the potential of these new routes and has integrated them into its long-term vision as a “Polar Silk Road”conceived as a functional equivalent to the Panama Canal or the Suez Canalbut under much more flexible conditions because the rules are not yet set.
Chinese research vessels, experimental freighters and icebreakers they are already browsing through the High North, collecting oceanographic data, mapping seabeds and testing routes that reduce by half travel times between Asia and Europe, while establishing a presence that, as happened in the South China Sea, begins as scientific and commercial and ends up having inevitable military implications.
Submarines, data and war under the ice. The most disturbing element for Washington and its allies is not only trade, but the underground: The Arctic Ocean offers ideal conditions for underwater warfare, with layers of water, variable salinity, and natural noise making sonar detection difficult.
The dives of Chinese research submarines under the ice, together with the deployment of “civilian” vessels that in practice function as covert military platforms, point to a clear objective: break the historic American submarine superiority and prepare the ground so that, in the future, Chinese nuclear submarines can operate near the North American continent with greater freedom and less risk.
The Sino-Russian alliance. Chinese expansion in the Arctic is amplified by its understanding with Russiawhich provides experience, technology and access to already exploited routes along its northern coast, while receiving in return key industrial and technological support to sustain its war in Ukraine.
This axis turns the Arctic into a space where two nuclear powers They coordinate in their own way air, naval and potentially submarine patrols, opening the door to a scenario that was unthinkable during the Cold War: Asian forces with the capacity to rapidly project themselves towards the Atlantic without passing through easily monitored bottlenecks.
Greenland as a hinge. In this context, Greenland stops being a frozen and sparsely populated island and become the hinge that controls the eastern flank of the Northwest Passage, the gateway from Europe to that future Arctic highway.
Whoever has decisive influence over Greenland can monitor, condition or even block maritime and submarine traffic in one of the most sensitive routes of the 21st century, in addition to housing radars, airports and key sensors for the defense of the American continent.
The emergencies. Here comes the Trump’s renewed interest to take over Greenland, which does not respond to an eccentricity or a nineteenth-century imperial impulse, but rather to the recognition of an emerging strategic vulnerability.
Washington watches how Beijing advances in the Arctic the same way he did in other settings: arriving early, coming to the table when the rules do not yet exist, and securing positions which then become almost impossible to reverse, which explains the pressure on Denmark, the enlargement of icebreaking capabilities and closer integration of the High North into NATO planning.
No locks. In summary, and unlike the Panama Canal, the Arctic is not a closed infrastructure nor regulated by consolidated treaties, but rather a space under construction where the early presence defines future power. For the United States to allow China to consolidate a dominant position on these routes would be to accept that its geographic and naval advantage can be eroded without a single shot, simply by letting the ice melt and others write the rules.
Greenland thus appears as the last piece of a bigger puzzle: one where it is not about buying or invading an island, but about deciding who controls trafficsecurity and the balance of power in the next great axis of global trade and war.
Image | RawPixel
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