The crisis between China and Japan has entered a deeper and symbolically harsher phase, marked by a clear transition from direct military pressure to political, cultural and emotional coercion. It all began after the statements of the Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, stating that a Chinese attack against Taiwan would mean an existential threat for Japan, a phrase that Beijing interpreted as the prelude to a possible Japanese military involvement in a conflict on the island.
From warning to punishment. Since those words, China has raised the pulse with a calculated combination of demonstrations of force and indirect retaliation: J-15 fighters illuminating Japanese aircraft with radar from the Liaoning aircraft carrier, joint flights of strategic bombers Chinese and Russians near the Japanese archipelago and a diplomatic campaign that seeks to isolate Tokyo by remembering the Japanese imperial past and its role in World War II.
Heaven as a message. The aerial maneuvers They are not isolated incidents, but carefully choreographed messages. The passage of the Liaoning south of Okinawa, the radar jams and the flights of nuclear-capable bombers over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea are part of a pattern of intimidation that seeks highlight two ideas: that China is willing to escalate and that Japan cannot count on an automatic response from the United States.
Washington, focused on stabilizing its relationship with Beijing and ambiguous about its degree of involvement in a crisis over Taiwan, has left Tokyo in an uncomfortable position. Only after the Chinese-Russian flights came a joint response with American B-52 bombers and Japanese fighters, a sign of deterrence that does not clear up the underlying uncertainty and confirms that the regional balance has become more fragile.
The pressure changes. But the most revealing turn in Chinese strategy comes when the confrontation has left the strictly military level and has filtered into everyday life. Beijing has urged its citizens to avoid Japan, discouraged Chinese students from enrolling in Japanese universities, cut flights and dropped organized tourism.
Added to this is a waterfall of cultural cancellations: concerts suspended, screenings canceled and shows held in empty pavilions following decisions by Chinese organizers. These are not improvised gestures, but a form of selective punishment that seeks to generate visible costs for Japan without crossing military thresholds, a warning addressed both to Tokyo and other countries tempted to express similar commitments to Taiwan.
Panda diplomacy. In this context it takes on all its meaning. the withdrawal of the last giant pandas in Japan. Since the normalization of relations in 1972, pandas have been one of the more refined tools of Chinese soft power: iconic animals, formally on loan, that symbolize friendship, scientific cooperation and goodwill, but whose legal ownership always remains Chinese.
Over the decades, Beijing has used its transfer, renewal or withdrawal as a political thermometerrewarding fluid relationships and freezing those that come into conflict. “Panda diplomacy” is not folklore, but a carefully designed form of strategic signaling, capable of conveying closeness or disapproval without the need for official communications.
Tokyo is left without pandas. The decision to return to China to Xiao Xiao and Lei Leithe last two pandas at the Ueno Zoo, leaves Japan without any for the first time in more than half a century. Although formally it is presented as the expiration of an agreement and a logistical issue, the chosen moment and Beijing’s silence regarding any possibility of renewal make the march of the pandas in a political gesture impossible to ignore.
In a city where these animals are a mass phenomenon and a cultural and economic asset, their departure functions as a tangible reminder who controls the symbols of the bilateral relationship. The expectation of hundreds of thousands of visitors saying goodbye to the pandas underlines the extent to which Chinese punishment has moved beyond the strategic level. to the emotional.
A calculated climb. The sequence is revealing: first, military warningsafter, diplomatic pressureand finally, sanction cultural and symbolic. China thus displays a manual of gradual coercion that combines hard and soft force to shape the behavior of its neighbors. Japan, far from giving in, maintains its position on Taiwan supported by public opinion increasingly critical of Beijing, while assuming that the bilateral relationship has entered its lowest point since the Senkaku Islands crisis in 2012.
The disturbing thing about the episode is not only the removal of some pandas wave concert cancellationbut the clarity with which China has demonstrated that it has multiple levers (military, economic, cultural and symbolic) to respond to any political challenge. And she is willing to use them all, progressively, when she considers that her red lines have been crossed.
Image | Alert5, kumachii, Colegota
In Xataka | Everything is going great between China and Japan, they are just pointing heavy weapons at each other
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings