The good news for Russia is that the earthquake occurred in a remote area. The bad is that he concentrated his nuclear submarines

Yesterday we woke up with the news of A historical earthquake In an area of the planet that you had not heard in life. Makes sense, Kamchatka It is located at the easiest end of the Russian Eastern Eastern region, such an inhospitable place that has a “good” side of history: we had to tell human casualties in Russia. However, and due precisely to its geographical situation, that is where Moscow keeps part of Its nuclear arsenal.

The epicenter of Russian underwater power. Yes, the Magnitude 8.8 earthquake who shook Kamchatka’s peninsula, one of the more powerful registered In modern history, he has put one of Russia’s most sensitive military facilities under the international focus: the naval bases of Avacha Bay.

The movement, which generated tsunami waves in the Pacific and coincided with the eruption of the klyuchevskaya sopka volcanothere was only 100 kilometers from the heart of Russian nuclear deterrent power in the Far East. Although the Moscow authorities assure that There are no fatalities No serious damage, doubts revolve around the real state of Rybachiy, the main base of Russian strategic submarinesand from the Naval Complex of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.

Rybachiy: the bastion of nuclear deterrence. The Rybachiy base It houses the backbone of the underwater strategic fleet of Russia in the Pacific Ocean: The SSBN of the Borei and Borei-A classsuccessors of Ancient Deltacapable of carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear heads. This installation, complemented by shipyards and missile load springs, represents a Central Piece of the Triad Russian nuclear, designed to guarantee the ability to retaliate in case of global conflict.

In the area they also operate advanced attack submarines, like Yasen-M (indicated by the United States as one of the main threats under water), in addition to Oscar units and other submersibles of nuclear or conventional propulsion. The vulnerability of these assets in the face of extreme natural phenomena now generates serious unknowns.

The Belgorod factor and the possesson weapon. To uncertainty is added the fact that Russia plans to move to Mysterious K-329 Belgorod To this same base. This submarine, the longest in the world, is a deep version Modified of the Oscar II class conceived to transport intercontinental nuclear torpedoes Poseidona strategic system also baptized as Status-6, designed to mock defenses and generate radioactive tsunamis.

In addition, Belgorod is designed for underwater intelligence missions and undercover operations. The mere possibility that it would be in Avacha Bay during the earthquake The strategic interest of the natural catastrophe.

Immediate technical risks and facilities. At the moment there is no clear evidence of damage to infrastructure or docked units. Bay’s own geography could have acted As a natural shield against the impact of the waves.

However, they pointed out the Twz analysts that even minor variations of the sea level can cause critical problems: from submarines, violently hitting their ties (incidents known as Allision) until the entry of water in open gates or in ships subjected to maintenance. The robustness of the facilities, built with the hypothesis of an attack Nuclear in mind, reinforces the thesis that the damage has been limited, but does not completely eliminate uncertainty.

The problem of concentrating a point. Beyond the punctual situation, the earthquake It exposes a structural dilemma: the risk of concentrating a substantial part of the Russian nuclear deterrence in a confined geographical enclave.

The Avacha Baywith its shipyards, arsenals and strategic units, it constitutes a critical objective both from the military and natural point of view. The threat of an enemy attack was planned in design of the bases, but not that of a seismic phenomenon of historical magnitudescapable of questioning the safety of a key piece of the Russian nuclear triad.

Strategic implications. In the background, the episode demonstrates how the stability of the world nuclear arsenal can depend on unpredictable natural factors. A single earthquake, in Second issueyou can compromise operability of strategic submarines whose function is to ensure the balance of nuclear terror.

The fact that Kamchatka combines geological vulnerabilities With military assets In addition, the fragility inherent in global deterrence systems reveals. The international community, and especially the rival nuclear powers, will carefully observe the reports that emerge from Moscow, aware that nature, unlike strategic calculations, is impossible to deter.

Image | Russian Ministry of Defense

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