They are not going to fit the 60,000 satellites that plan Spacex and company

More than 10,000 active satellites Orbit our planet. Two thirds are from the Starlink constellation Spacex, which has A team working 24/7 to prevent collisions against other satellites and large fragments of space garbage, of which there are at least 40,000. It is a known problem, but we did not expect it to get worse for climatic reasons.

The effect of climate change on space garbage. Carbon dioxide emissions, responsible for global warming due to their greenhouse effect, cause the opposite effect on the upper atmosphere, cooling and shrinking the highest layers, which makes the atmosphere itself become less dense. This phenomenon favors the accumulation of space garbage.

As? The upper atmosphere acts as a natural “cleaner” for space garbage. When the objects orbit near the earth, they touch the atmosphere, however light, slowly slowing down until they fall and burned. But, with a thinner atmosphere, this cleaning effect weakens significantly, which means that space garbage remains in orbit longer.

The projections are scary. According to a study published in Nature SustainabilityIf we continue to generate greenhouse gas emissions without control, the atmosphere will become so thin that, by 2050, the ability to house satellites of the low terrestrial orbit orbit would be reduced by 27%. By the end of the century, the reduction would be between 50 and 66%.

The study introduces the concept of “instant orbital capacity” to calculate how many satellites can operate simultaneously without generating uncontrolled growth of space garbage, emphasizing the cyclic variability of the sun: during the minimum solar, the atmosphere is further contract.

The problem of constellations. The growing technological demand of the land orbit is dominated by Starlink, which will soon follow other Chinese, European and American constellations with their Plans to launch up to 60,000 satellites In the coming years. The low orbit (between 200 and 1,000 km of altitude) where most satellites operate could become unsustainable.

In the worst stage, a single collision would cause A destructive waterfall Known as Kessler syndrome: a chain reaction in which each shock generates more fragments, exponentially multiplying the amount of space garbage and returning the practically useless earth orbit.

What we are doing to avoid it. Beyond reducing emissions that aggravate this phenomenon with the energy transition, there are companies and space agencies Testing techniques to remove space trashlike the famous satellites capable of capturing old objects. But the most effective solution, which bets on the European space agency in its Strategy 2040is to stop adding trash through launching and design regulations of the strictest satellites.

Jared Isaacman, nominated for NASA administrator, stressed in his X account the seriousness of the problem: “Even an aluminum fragment of millimeter size, traveling at orbital speed, can cause considerable damage,” wrote. For Isaacman, the solution is to immediately stop the creation of new space garbage and Avoid military conflicts in orbitthat could trigger the dreaded Kessler syndrome.

Image | Max Alexander/Steve Kelly (ESA)

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