The Big Tech have played their whole future to AI. Tariffs are going to test that bet

The world economy makes waters. The geopolitical and economic hurricane called tariffs It is affecting especially to large technology companiesthat fall remarkably in the stock market. There are many problems derived from that value of value of the Big Tech, but among them there is a remarkable one: the future of AI.

Apple in low hours. The tariffs have just entered into force, but it is also that the US has officialized the 104% tariff to China. The global commercial war intensifies, and has already left a great loser: Apple has ceased to be the most valuable company in the world.

This is the current situation of companies with the greatest market capitalization on the planet. Source: CompaniesMarketcap

The great AI actors, in danger. But curiously Apple has not invested much less in AI and its rivals. Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Google and Meta have suffered significant losses in recent weeks. Tariffs have been the decisive factor so that in 2025 they accumulate a negative balance that goes from 14.6% of the 33% of Apple according to data according to data from CompaniesMarketcap.

This is not about the debated “AI bubble”. It is true that all AI companies have wanted to sell us the message that this technology was going to change everything. At the moment that has not happened and some talked about a potential “AI bubble“, But what is happening with tariffs is something very different, and does not help at all the future of this discipline.

This table, created on February 10 for Xataka, indicated the market capitalization percentage that Big Tech would dedicate to capital expenses (CAPEX). The photo has changed in terms of the percentages, and we will see if it also does it as to those amounts.

Capex in danger. Two months ago we talked about how Apple was the company that Less capital expenses (CAPEX) would have in 2025. In front of it, colossal investments and a common discourse: almost all those thousands would be focused on creating data centers for AI. Now those investments are in danger, because all these Big Tech can end up disincurning to mitigate the effects of tariffs on their account books.

The AI ​​was already expensive, and now it will be more expensive. Being able to take advantage of the functions of AI means using the enormous resources of the data centers of those Big Tech. If the tariffs cause the dreaded and expected price increases in these infrastructure, that will make it cause Use ia more expensive For users and companies, which can lead to a drop in its use and a slowdown of its development. If everything is more expensive and the expense is trimmed, so does innovation and work in new AI models.

Fear of investing. Investment companies, such as risk capital, can also be very affected by this panorama and start Measure very much Your future investment in AI startups. That is another danger to the evolution of a market that until now had taken advantage of Optimism and unbridled expectations about AI. And without so much investment once again the appearance of new startups and the rhythm of innovation can be clearly braking.

Risk of recession. The consultant JP Morgan I already esteem that the risk of the US to enter recession in 2025 is 60%. In these periods, companies prioritize financial stability over innovation, which can decelerate the pace of technological innovation. A study A year ago of Deutsche Bundesbank and the Bank of Finland showed how a 1% drop in GDP can reduce investment in innovation to 0.3%. Precisely JP Morgan revealed that US GDP could fall 1% in the third quarter of 2025 for this circumstance.

Image | Jamie Street

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