September 10 is a date marked in the calendars of hurricane -expert meteorologists. It is the date on which the Atlantic hurricanes season usually achieves its peak of activity. But the decreasing trend in the average activity of Atlantic cyclones should not deceive us: there is still a season ahead.
We enter the final stretch. According to Experts remember NHC (National Hurricane Center), the American center dedicated to the study of hurricanes, 60% of the activity of hurricanes occurs, generally, after this peak. That is, despite having already gone through the temporary Ecuador of the season (which begins on June 1 and ends on November 30), we could still have more than half of the cyclonic activity ahead.
NHC meteorologists also remember that the activity in this part of the season tends to affect the western zone of the North Atlantic, the most vulnerable area to this type of storm because it is in North America and the Caribbean where they usually touch earth.
A quiet season. When the Atlantic hurricane season began, there for June, experts predicted a relatively quiet season, but the data show an even greater meekness than expected.
When measuring the intensity of a hurricane season, different measures can be used such as the number of storms named, hurricane number, sum of the days with active hurricanes, etc. Another useful measure is that of the index of accumulated cyclonic energy (ACE).
According to The data of the Tropical Meteorology Project of the State University of Colorado (CSU), at this point in the hurricane season, the expected Ace based on the Atlantic weather would be 55.8, while the ACE observed is only 39. This implies that the observed data are 30.1% lower compared to those initially expected.
Erin, the disruptive force. In addition, there is the circumstance that most of this energy is due to a single hurricane, Erin. Erin’s Ace was 32.2which represents about 82.6% of the total season.
What’s happening. That this year’s season was less intense than the previous one was to wait: the temperature in the Atlantic, even though it has not reached the extreme levels seen in recent years and the oscillation of the child has remained in a kind of indecision.
A Recent study Led by the meteorologist of the CSU Philip Klotzbach, he highlighted three reasons that could explain to a good extent what we are observing, starting with an “dry and stable” Atlantic.
The second of the factors highlighted by the team is a channel pronounced in the high troposphere capable of increasing the vertical wind shear (one of the two determining factors, together with the oceanic temperature, in the formation of hurricanes). The third and last factor would be a descending movement over the African continent, which would be affecting rainfall in West Africa and with it the intensity of waves in the region.
What can we expect. Klotzbach’s team coincides with NHC experts to emphasize the possibility that the season resume intensity from this month. “We anticipate that the resume season (intensity), since large -scale conditions seem more tropical and favorable to cyclones later in September,” explain in your text.
Therefore they recommend not changing seasonal forecast. The initial estimate of the Tropical Meteorology project of the CSU indicated that the expected oil for the end of the year It is 122.5. On the other hand, if we take the last data (39) and apply the estimate that 60% of the activity occurs in these last months of the season, we would have an expected oil around 100. We will have to wait to see if the trend continues or if on the contrary we see if this season steps on the accelerator in its last months of activity.
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Image | Hurricane Erin. NASA Earth Observatory by Michala Garrison, using NASA EOSDIS Lance, GIBS/WorldView, and Suomi National Polar-Footing Partnership.
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