their prices are not going down

Trump’s tariff war has put the world economy in check and the first victim of that crossfire It has been oil. This situation has caused a fall in raw barrel prices, being below $ 60. However, unlike other similar events this was muddy to a relief in the supplier. This time, it has not been so.

The pressure in the barrel. In these four months that we have been the price of oil for the year, it has had a downward trend due to excessive overproduction so much by the United States as by the members of the OPEC+but the fall was not very steep for the closure of some refineries. However, the perfect storm He arrived with the tariffs that made the barrels of Brent and WTI fall to a level that was not seen since 2020.

Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its forecast for world demand for oil for this year in a third, from 1.03 to 730,000 million barrels per day, mainly by the commercial war between the USA and China, According to The Guardian. Besides, In a recent statementeight OPEC+ countries have begun to partially reverse their production cuts, which has increased pressure on prices.

But there is no decrease in gasoline. It is one thing to talk about the fall in the price of raw barrel and a very different one is of its refinement. In this case, refining margins (refining margins) have also decreased by various factors. First, refining and distribution costs, the price of the barrel is only part of the final cost of the liter of gasoline. According to the Petroleum Bulletin of the European Commissionrefined margins have decreased, but transport, taxes and commercial margins have increased.

On the other hand, like has detailed The energy analyst Javier Blas, the market still remains. In other words, there is no drastic and sustained drop that force a massive prices. The energy expert has clarified: “The market is, for the moment, discounting a slowdown, but not a total recession or a 2020 type price war”. Finally, it has shown that a good part of the oil consumed today was bought weeks or months ago at higher prices through term contracts.

Will there be a real decline in the supplier? The short answer is: not immediately. There is a very present volatility factor: geopolitics. As has pointed out Blas, the market has not yet discounted events as an open price war Between OPEC+ members either A worsening of the Ukraine War. If any of these shocks occurs, prices could rise again.

The case of Spain. The average price of the liter of gasoline has risen slightly in the last week despite the fall of the Brent, but how is that possible? According to Business Insidermany gas stations tend to raise the price in times where demand will be greater, as is the case of Holy Week. However, it is also given that importers have bought oil in advance, so what reaches the suppliers was acquired at a higher price.

Forecasts According to the energy analyst Liam Denningwhile IEA is reviewing its demand projections and The commercial war between the United States and China It continues to generate uncertainty, the global oil scene becomes increasingly unstable. Although crude oil prices have fallen, the pressure on OPEC+ and the production decisions of the United States can prolong this volatility, maintaining high refining margins and making a real reduction in the final price of gasoline.

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