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On the morning of April 6, the island of Taiwan rose with a feeling of Leave Vú. In front of its coasts, a 21 ship fleet Together with Shandong aircraft carrier, a series of military exercises had begun that would extend several days. China had done it again, always maintaining that limit of 24 nautical miles that separate the exhibition of “something else”, but it had happened so many times in the last months that the island made a decision: Activate a plan B.
International Warning. That last exhibition was so publicized that even the Foreign Ministers of the Group of the Seven (G7) issued a unusually overwhelming condemnation against military exercises, describing them as “provocative” and “destabilizers.” In an official statement, they expressed their deep concern about the growing number of Chinese military maneuvers that raise tensions in the Strait and represent a direct risk for global safety and prosperity.
They also reiterated that both members of the G7 and the international community as a whole have a vital interest in preserving peace and Stability in the regionopposing any unilateral attempt to alter the status quoespecially if it involves the use of force or coercion.
A strategic response. But as we said, the island has decided to activate a plan B. How? Taiwan’s army has started a unprecedented military exercise which simulates its worst possible scenario: that the Popular Liberation Army (EPL) of China transforms one of its regular maneuvers into a large -scale attack against the island.
It is a computer -assisted war simulation phase that is part of the Ha Kuang annual maneuversextended this year to 14 days (six more than in 2024) and scheduled to develop until April 18. The simulation responds to the growing concern about the increase in the frequency, scale and aggressiveness of the maneuvers around the Taiwan Strait, which could cover up a real invasion too quickly to be effectively contained.
Realism 24 hours. Thus, using the platform Joint Theater Level Simulation (JTLS), the Taiwanese armed forces have activated a joint operations center that simulates an immediate transition from peace time to war. The scenarios are modeled on possible EPL actionsincluding not only a direct offensive, but also hybrid threats in The gray area: Disinformation campaigns, cyber attacks, harassment by drones and paramilitary fishing fleets.
The objective is clear: to prove the capacity for coordination and response of the forces under extreme conditions, maintaining active operations 24 hours a day during the entire period of the year.
USA. Not just that. Taiwanese media have explained that US military personnel will attend simulations as an observer, reinforcing the already close defensive cooperation Between Taipéi and Washington, although without detailing which officials will be present.
In February, Major General Jay Bargeron, Director of Strategic Planning of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, participated in a previous phase of the maneuvers, a fact that caused Government criticism Chinese. The growing influence of the Progressive Democratic Party (DPP) and the arrival of William Lai Ching-Te, perceived by Beijin as A “separatist”has intensified tensions, which is reflected in the hardening of China’s speech and military pressure on the island.
Asymmetric war capabilities. The exercise not only responds to a tactical change, but also to a strategic transformation: Taiwan is validating the incorporation of Asymmetric war assetsadapted to compensate for his numerical inferiority against the EPL.
These assets include drones, tanks M1A2Trocket systems Himarsanti -tank missiles Tow 2b and coastal batteries Harpoon. All these systems are being integrated into current simulations and will be subjected to new tests during The real fire phase of the exercise Han Kuang, scheduled from July 9 to 18.
Urban combat and operations. When the time comes, the July stage will include continuous joint maneuversboth in continental territory and in peripheral islands, airspace and maritime areas. Urban resilience exercises will also be carried out, focused on cooperation between armed and civil forces. The key areas, apparently, include the response to hybrid threats, rapid preparation and reaction, the mechanisms of authorization of military actions, operational safety, logistics and evaluation of the performance of recently incorporated systems.
Danger: Lightning offensive. At this point, voices of experts have emerged who have warned for years about the Chinese strategy of the so -called as “Salami Slicing”that is, progressive advances that blur the borders between maneuver and aggression.
Here we return to a topic that We have counted in The last months. The EPL has gone increasing your presence Around Taiwan, violating conventions Traditional such as respect for the midline of the Strait, that unofficial 180 km division that separates the island from the continent. An eventual surprise offensive, According to analystsI could place Chinese fighters in Taipéi in a matter of minutes, drastically reducing Taiwan’s initial response capacity.
Unprecedented coordination. According to Chou Yu-Pingformer director of Missile Planning of Taiwan, this tactical evolution requires total coordination between the branches of the army, and therefore the number and complexity of the scenarios of the Han Kuang exercise have been expanded.
Planning now contemplates not only traditional military scenarios, but also hybrid dynamics and multidominiumin order to preserve Taiwan’s defense ability to an aggressor who acts with less and less subtlety.
The importance of Taiwan for the US. In the background, we must not forget that “paints” the United States in the tensions of the Strait. In fact, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. It was the center of the analysis that Ben Thompson recently raised in his Newsletter Stratechery. For the analyst, the true severity of the conflict would not only reside who controls taipéi, but in the deep breakdown of Global supply chainsin particular of the most critical sector of the 21st century: semiconductors.
Taiwan is not any island; It is the TSMC headquartersthe most advanced manufacturer in the world of chips. Without its operations, Collapse digital infrastructure which holds from mobiles to artificial intelligence, through defense, industry, health and transport.
Self -destruction as dissuasion. According to Thompsonis so the global dependence of the Taiwanese chips that exists, that there is a highly discussed hypothesis in security circles: that Taiwan could threaten with destroy your factories of semiconductors to deter an invasion, a kind of “economic self -destruction button” that would make control by China unfeasible.
Regardless of who wins the military confrontation, the economic result seems himself: Isolated China, taiwan destroyed, collapsed global trade, fired inflation and free drop markets. What happened during the chaos of the supply chains in the pandemic or the immediate effects of the new tariffs imposed by Trump would only be a tiny sample before the disaster of a real war of this caliber.
A war like reset. Thompson launched a reflection of the most provocative to end: more than a threat, war could be the only form of restart a system global economy that is already broken. The current order, Born in Bretton Woods After World War II and accelerated with the China opening to the world marketis held on structural imbalances: the United States outsourced its industrial capacity in exchange for cheap goods, extended its logistics chains to the other side of the planet and left resilience gaps in its own productive heart.
The consequences for the analyst They are known: Lost industrial jobs, devastated regions and chronic deficits, “and it is in that void where populist speeches resonate Like JD Vance’swho appeal to a working class abandoned by globalization, “he said. In front of that latent collapse, Thompson believes that Trump tariffsalthough clumsy, expensive and divisive, they are presented as an uncomfortable measure but possibly necessary. They are not a definitive solution, but a way to force readjustment without resorting to weapons.
A thermometer. What seems clearly clear is that Taiwan’s question can no longer be analyzed only in terms of sovereignty or Regional Geopolitics. In the small territory, the future of The global economy and the very structure of international power.
While, Taiwan prepares For the unthinkable: an invasion disguised as maneuver. The simulation of this extreme scenario not only strengthens its operational capacity, but also seeksAnd maybe more) of strategic partners such as the United States.
Image | Al Jazeera English, 總統府
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