China lo has done againand this time he has a very clear recipient. Beijing has started Your second day of large -scale military exercises around Taiwan. The number of troops and the enormity of the fleet that is currently in the area is a direct response to The statements From the Taiwanese president, Lai Ching-Te, who had defined China as a “hostile foreign force” announcing measures to counteract the interference and espionage of Beijing. The problem: A document He has revealed what the US response would be.
A warning. According to the spokesman The popular liberation army, the maneuvers that are currently taking place simulate the total control of the island, including maritime blocks, attacks on land and sea objectives, and control of strategic routes. As we said, this time, unlike other exercises, China made it clear that the operation It is a “punishment” Against the independence positions of LAI, who belongs to the Democratic Progressive Party and denies that Taiwan is part of China.
Without crossing lines. A few hours ago, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense reported that, only on Tuesday, they were registered 71 air incursions and the presence of 21 ships, including Shandong aircraft carrier, which operated in the vicinity of Taiwan. It should also be clarified that although none of these elements violated the limit of 24 nautical miles established by Taiwan’s adjoining zone, experts consider that maneuvers seek to raise psychological and military pressure on the island.
In addition, the China Coast Guard patrol Islands controlled by Taipéithus increasing the sensation of fence. Specialists like Chieh Chung and his Tzu-Yun They pointed to New York Times That, although the military exhibition is “intimidating”, it seems calculated to avoid a direct escalation.
Dual message. Although China frames these maneuvers as a reaction to Lai’s wordsanalysts consider that the message is also addressed to another nation: United States. As we have counted before, the Government of Lai has strengthened links With Washington, promising to increase military spending to More than 3% of GDP to maintain deterrence against Beijing. In parallel, the United States Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegesh, reaffirmed from Japan The American commitment With stability and defense in the Taiwan Strait, highlighting the strategic priority of preventing a forced taking of the island.
In this context, China seeks, According to Amanda Hsiao and Wen-Ti Sungdemonstrate firmness before Trump’s government Without completely closing The door to the de -escalated, especially when commercial tensions persist and new US rates against Chinese products persist. However, as we said at the beginning, we now also know Washington’s response if tensions go more.
Pentagon secret guide. I told the weekend in a Exclusive Washington Post. Secretary of Defense Hegesh had issued a secret guide that redefines the strategic priorities of the pentagon, almost exclusively focusing military preparation on Taiwan’s defense Before a possible attack by China and in the protection of the US territory, even at the expense of reducing its global presence.
Said document, called Interim National Defense Strategic Guidancedistributed in March and classified as “secret”, instructs the Armed Forces to “assume risks” in other regions such as Europe, the Middle East and Africa, delegating much of the responsibility of facing regional threats such as Russia, Iran or North Korea. The strategy leaves no doubt: it orders the Pentagon to redirect its resources to prevent China from achieving a rapid occupation of Taiwan and strengthening the defense of strategic places in the American continent, Like Greenland and The Panama Canal.
Absolute priority: a single scenario. The new orientation revealed marks a radical turn with respect to previous administrations by identifying China as the only strategic threat (“Pacing Threat”) and Taiwan’s defense as the only scenario that guides the structure of forces and the allocation of resources.
In fact, the strategy Discard Russia As the main focus of planning, delegating its containment almost completely to the European forces. Plus: The anti -terrorist missions would be limited to face groups with the ability and will to attack US territory, relegating operations against militias that only destabilize their own regions.


Exercises in Taiwan
The Heritage Foundation report. It is the germ of the memo to which the post has had access. The document carries the fingerprint of The Heritage Foundation, a closely Think Tank Tank Linked to the Trump Administration. Moreover, the post that there are many passages that are practically identical to the Heritage report published in 2024centered on three axes: deterrence of the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, defense of the US territory and increased the military burden of the allies.
Even Alexander Velez-Green, co-author of the Heritage report, currently occupies An interim key position In the Pentagon. The similarity, in fact, has already been recognized by Congress advisors, who consider that the guide is directly inspired by the recommendations of the Think Tank, which confirms The growing influence of Heritage in the American defense policy.
Deployment and pressure. The magnitude of the brief is understood in figures. The plan orders to strengthen the Military presence in the Indo-Pacific With submarines, bombers, naval drones and specialized units capable of destroying fortified and underground objectives, while demanding Taiwan to increase their military spending up to 10% of GDPwell above the current levels and NATO standards.
At the same time and as we said, the Atlantic Alliance is urged to assume most of the defense of Europe, leaving the United States only the role of nuclear deterrence and limited support, especially if there is a simultaneous war with China.
What does Taiwan say. He counted the post A few hours ago, the Taiwanese government and analysts have received the leak of the memo with relief, although that yes, with surprise that the Trump administration has placed as the highest military priority the deterrence of a possible Chinese invasion to Taiwan.
The measure, in addition, comes after months of restlessness in Taipéi for the policy of “America First” and the weakening of international commitments, including the suspension of Military assistance to Ukrainewhich made the United States ended up leaving Taiwan at the mercy of Beijing. The document, however, breaks with that uncertainty in defining that the only “reference threat” for the Department of Defense is to prevent China from achieving a rapid occupation of the island, guiding all US military planning towards this scenario.
The delicate balance. The Memo has made it clear that the United States will seek to prevent China from achieving the so -called “Fait Accompl” About Taiwan, but without detailing how he would face possible retaliation of Beijing. At the same time, Trump have insisted that Taiwan must assume More responsibilities financial and operational in their own defense. In this context, the island walks along a thin line between taking advantage of the renewed protection American and avoid causing a escalation that, like Analysts warncould make it the main scenario of confrontation of the powers.
For its part, the last China maneuvers They are taking place in front of the island reflect the will of Xi Jinping to maintain pressure on Taiwan without causing an open conflict that further complicates the already tense relations with the United States and the rest of international actors. A very delicate balance, because between deterrence and climbing there is a too fine line.
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