Even with the sanctions it is cheaper

In recent days, President Donald Trump has sent a proposal High to Vladimir Putin. In addition, the G7 He has urged To Russia to accept the stop to the fire or, otherwise, you will have to face new sanctions. However, one of the strongest assets of the Kremlin is not having problems thanks to the black market.

The hidden market. The last report of the IEA has pointed out That the combined production of Russia’s crude oil, Venezuela and Iran has increased in March, compared to the previous months. As advanced in their social networks Energy expert Javier Blas: “Despite all rumors about new sanctions, the black oil market is thriving.”

Despite the sanctions. The three countries mentioned continue to export raw, taking advantage of lagoons in the regulation and lack of political will to curb the flow of illicit oil, such as explains Javier Blas in his column. Also, like It is mentioned in the IEA reportexports from both Russia and Iran have not experienced significant interruptions, since both countries meet the demand of China and India. For its part, Venezuela has had to face more challenges for the revocation of the Chevron license, which the He has forced to depend more on intermediaries to export their crude, especially China.

The increasingly lower price. The price of oil He is facing A “perfect storm”, in which an unexpected country, Kazakhstan, has been placed in the center of the energy market. Although this country was not known for being a great producer such as Russia, Iran or Venezuela, its growing influence on OPEC+ and its overproduction strategy are affecting the global oil supply. For its part, Russia, Iran and Venezuela produce Together 16 million barrels per day, that is, 15% of the world market of crude oil with lower prices affecting the traditional market.

But how do they? The black oil market has adopted different methods to avoid sanctions. Oil trees without sanctions and transfers on the high seas, better known as “Ghost ships“, They have become common routes to continue exporting the crude of the mentioned countries. This strategy, although expensive and risky, remains attractive due to the high profit margin. Intermediaries play a crucial role, then Through triangulation With countries that do not apply sanctions, such as China and India, they continue to buy and transport the crude sanctioned without fear of immediate repercussions.

Europe without action for action. Meanwhile, the EU faces a complicated situation. On the one hand, as we commented above, it cannot act against the black market. On the other hand, like Bloomberg has advancedan agreement between the Kremlin and the US on Ukraine could resume the flows of the Russian gas pipelines to Europe. This statement adds another layer of uncertainty to the situation, since a few days ago the debate between Russia and the United States about The reopening of nordstream 2.

The global impact. As Russia, Iran and Venezuela maintain exports of the black market and Kazakhstan and the United States continue to overcome, prices will continue to be pressed down. To all this, we must add a lack of agreement in the high on the fire in the Ukraine War, so the uncertainty in the energy markets will continue. The combination of these dynamics could continue to disrupt the global market balance, leaving the energy situation even more vulnerable.

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