The EU has a weapon in the war of tariffs with the US and is to direct them to Republican states

The EU will respond to The tariffs of the US with the same currency. Or rather, with the same policy, applying a curious law of the talion that from Brussels summary of form Simple but resounding: “Euro per euro, dollar per dollar.” After seeing how Donald Trump pressed on Wednesday the tariff red button, activating 25% rates To imports of European aluminum and steel, the European Commission has decided to replicate by applying taxes worth 26,000 million euros to a long list of American goods.

The figure (26,000) is overwhelming, but the most interesting thing is what it hides. The EU has decided “hit where it hurts” to Trump, penalizing products that in many cases leave Great Folders of Republican votes. The goal is evident: press Trump from outside … and from within.

A word: tariffs. To Trump He likes tariffs. He has openly recognized it, even as a White House candidate, when assured That ‘Tariff’ is, in his opinion, “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” In the 50 scarce days He has sitting in the Oval Office has repeated that word a few times, many. Sometimes for disdain in addition. Others, Like this weekto announce a turn in the US policy towards certain foreign goods.

On Wednesday the Republican Impulse 25% tariffs to all steel and aluminum imported to the US, a measure that connects with similar ones of his first mandate and that he has not laid anything well in Canada or the EU, who have already decided to play their own letters to respond. In the case of the EU, the European Commission announced yesterday “countermeasures” that will basically translate in applying tariffs worth 26,000 million of euros to certain US exports.

What does Brussels plan? Use the stick and carrot. Yesterday the president of the CE, Úrsula von der Leyen, insisted In the importance of commercial relations between the EU and USA, the “harmful” effect of the encumbrances and their hand lying to Washington, but with them he announced EU’s plans to replicate Trump with tariff 26,000 million of euros. Moreover, he has already decided how he will: the EU will advise the coup throughout April, in two phases.

On April 1 he will reactivate the “countermeasures” that he had already activated between 2018 and 2020, after Trump’s first government had Increased your rates also unilaterally. That punishment package that Brussels wants to recover It was suspended After the arrival of Joe Biden to the White House and, according to the EU calculationswill now serve to respond to economic damage worth 8,000 million euros caused by US tariffs.

The second Brussels movement will reach mid -April (to be precise on the 13th) and will seek to counteract the damage worth another 18,000 million euros that, again According to EU calculationswill have the new Trump tariffs in European exports. Between one and the others they will add 26,000 million. That this last “countermelted” later has an explanation: it is new and before Brussels wants to have it well tied with the 27 EU countries.

That’s all? No. von der Leyen argues That the EU wanted to be equitable in its replica: “Since the US applies tariffs worth $ 28,000 million, we respond with countermeasures worth 26,000 million euros,” he alleges. However, there is something so or even more important than those figures: what are applied to. The EC has decided to refine the shot and direct its punishment to certain US goods that can be sensitive to Trump for a very simple reason: they leave states that They support it at the polls, to him and the Republican party.

“Hit where it hurts”. A senior EU official summarized it clearly (and forcefully) yesterday in statements a The Guardian: “We try to hit where it hurts.” In the American merchandise list that has the CE in the spotlight, which can be Consult onlinethere are motorcycles, whiskey, wine, honey, meat, cheese … a long payroll of products in which Some experts They have already seen some intentionality. For example, it affects iconic products, with a symbolic value, such as Harley-Davidon motorcycles or The Bourbona wiski with an important roots in the US.

The importance of soybeans. The same source that spoke with The Guardian I quoted Another clear example: soybeans, interesting for several reasons. The first is its commercial weight. At least in 2019 it was The main supplier of soy of Europe, far ahead of Brazil, the second supplier. The specialized magazine PROGRESIVE FARMERbased in Alabama, points that Europe buys about 6.5 million metric tons of soybean exports and soy flour with a value of around 3,000 million dollars.

Despite this bond the same source of Brussels assured The Guardian that for the EU would not mean any trauma to look for the supply in another market. “We love soybeans, but we are gladly bought from Brazil, Argentina or any other lujar,” reason. A year ago the EU has already raised sensitively The amount of Brazilian soy. The third factor that makes soybeans a sensitive merchandise for Trump, in addition to its weight in the commercial flow with Europe and the possibility of buying it in other countries is where it occurs in the US.

Looking at the Republican Party. Soybean is one of the goods more relevant in agricultural exports to the EU. And a state relevant In the cultivation of American soybeans it is Louisiana, a territory especially sensitive For Donald Trump’s game. From there is the Republican Mike Johnsonthe president of the House of Representatives.

Luisiana is also one of the states that was dyed red (Republican color) during the presidential elections of 2024, just like Iowa, Indiana, Missuri, Ohio or the two Dakotas. Everyone has more than having facilitated Trump’s access to the White House: they also stand out in The soy map United States.

“Smart” tariffs. Something similar happens with the bourbon, especially linked to Tennessee and Kentucky, Traditional Folders Republican vote. The nickname Bluegrass State has also choosing from mid -80s to the senator Mith McConnellRepublican historical leader.

The logic used by Brussels when designing their “countermeasures” has already led some to talk about “smart” tariffscreated to take effect “where it hurts”. However, its effect will be felt solely in Republican territory, a priori the one that can exert greater pressure on Trump. Without going any further Illinois, a state Traditionally Democratit also has an important weight On the American soybean map, and Harley-Davidson’s headquarters is in Wisconsin, less defined politically.

Images | US Department of Agriculture (Flickr) 1 and 2 and Gage Skidmore (Flickr)

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