The so-called prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have ceased to be minority apps and have become a global phenomenon, one that has already moved more than 130,000 million so far in 2026. Apart from the ethical issuesit is clear that it is a good business and Meta is preparing an app to get fully into it.
What is happening. They tell it in the New York Times. Meta is developing a prediction markets app that they internally call “Arena.” The app is designed as an independent application from the rest of the Meta catalog and, at least for now, it does not work with real money but rather transactions are with a points system as if it were a video game. At the moment, the project is in the experimental phase, but the company has marked it as a high priority.
Why is it important. Polymarket and Kalshi have already managed to get rid of the stigma of gambling addiction in betting houses and casinos, disguising their service with an aura of finance and trading. That Meta enters this could be the definitive step towards normalization, turning betting into another activity within online life. Let us remember that Meta has a daily user base of more than 3.5 billion between Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.
Furthermore, this would give Meta a new type of very sensitive data: it is not only what people see and publish, it is also what they think is going to happen. By crossing all the data, they could outline future beliefs and expectations.
It’s not the first. Meta already tried his luck in this prediction markets in 2020, when They launched an app called Forecast which allowed predictions to be made about real-world events, such as the COVID pandemic that was ravaging the world at that time. The app was launched only for the United States and Canada and also worked with a points system. Meta’s goal at that time was not to make money, but to make online conversation more rational. “We were interested in prediction markets because, when they work, they help participants be rational,” said Rebeca Kossnick, project leader. It didn’t last long and In October of the same year they closed it.
Prediction markets. At that time, prediction markets were niche apps that almost no one knew about, but in recent years they have become almost a cultural phenomenon that has been announced at major events such as the Super Bowl or the Golden Globes. So far this year, Polymarket has been in the news for various reasons, from bets on Maduro’s capture with insider information its recent blockade in Spainwhere legislation requires them to have a gaming license.
We have also learned that the vast majority of users are not making money, rather they are losing it, while professional traders take the lion’s share of the pie. Even so, prediction markets are in fashion and Meta wants to take advantage of the trend.
Image | Xataka with Magnific
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