The smartphone market is touched. That of technology, in general, with the brands themselves warning months ago about what was coming and encouraging us to anticipate technological purchases in the coming years as soon as possible. The rise of artificial intelligence and the Big Tech fever for building data centers has broken the consumer market with increasingly expensive computers, inaccessible components and the disappearance of the “cheap mobile”.
Because 2026 is not being a good year to buy technology to the point that there is already talk of the worst year in history for smartphones.
Disaster in sight. We already knew that 2026 was going to be bad, but now the analyst firm Counterpoint Research has revised their forecasts to point out something interesting: it will be worse than we expected. If in February they pointed to a drop in the year-on-year volume of smartphone shipments this year of 12.4%, they have now revised those forecasts to go a little further: up to 13.9%.
This implies that this year some 1,080 million mobile phones will be shipped, which seems like a lot, but it represents 174 million fewer devices than in 2025. The translation is that it will be the lowest annual volume since 2013, when everything was field, experimentation and the newest smartphones continued to coexist with strange proposals and ‘dumb phones’.
No options. The reason is the persistence of the component crisis, mainly storage and RAM memory. The acceleration of Big Tech to build more AI infrastructure is causing himcomponent production lines For the consumer sector (in which mobile phones are found) it does not have components or has to buy them much more expensively. This, evidently, causes the sales price of the device to increase.
The impact is there because the memory represented 20% of the manufacturing invoice for an entry mobile. Now that percentage rises to 40% or more and, although everything increases in price or does not improve as it should from one generation to the next to cushion the impact, manufacturers really do not have many more options. The calculations are there and they make the new mobile phones less attractive.
- In the entry range – increments of 30 dollars per unit.
- In the mid range – from 60 to 80 dollars per unit.
- In the premium – 100 and 150 dollars per unit.
Strategy. These manufacturers have two options on the table. Or they don’t launch new devices this year, something that some industry giants have already targetedensuring that the situation will cause some companies to fall by the wayside because their business depends directly on the devices… or they launch new models, but without better specifications and more expensive.
It is estimated that smartphone prices worldwide increased by 14% during the first quarter of this year, with a shortage hitting the entry and mid-range segment harder than that of more premium mobile phones. The reason is that in the mid-range the margins are tighter and in the premium it is other components that raise the bill (cameras or screens, for example), in addition to having wider margins.
In figures. It is affordable mobile phones that are bearing the brunt, with a 46% drop in shipments in this first quarter due to the reduction in the supply of LPDDR4 memory. In fact, Samsung is one of the largest on the market and already pointed out weeks ago that they were going to abandon the LPDDR4 to focus on the LPDDR5 which is better, but also more expensive.
An example with first and last names is Galaxy A57a mobile that exemplifies this price increase in the mid-range because one GB of RAM is already worth twice as much as three months ago. To contextualize this, let’s go with some figures:
- Apple (premium segment) – stable shipments.
- Samsung (all segments, but strong presence in premium) – 4% drop.
- Xiaomi (all segments, but more in the mid-range) – 20% drop.
- Honor (all segments, but more in the mid-range) – 28% drop.
- Transsion (especially entry range) – 32% drop.
No recovery on the horizon. The good news? Really, there is no good news. Coaunterresearch Point is just one source, but a forecast Parallel to IDC, which also contemplates this drop in shipments of 13.9%, points to an additional 1.1% of 1.1%. It is in 2028 when the situation is expected to begin to improve, but without returning to the state we had just two years ago.
It will be a slow recovery and the market will suffer more in those areas where there is a greater concentration of mobile phones that move around 200 euros. It is, as we said months ago, the disappearance of the cheap mobile in favor of a more resilient high-end and premium because of what we commented about sales margins.
But hey, in the end, it is a situation that we are seeing in all consumer devices. Apple is discontinuing options for its Macs with certain memory combinations, the Steam Deck just went up 300 euros suddenly, The Raspberry Pi has increased tremendously and it is not known when they will come out Steam MachinePS6 or Xbox Project Helix because no one wants to compromise. The only thing we know about the new Xbox is what its new CEO said: It will be expensive due to the component crisis.
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