The fires have already grown by 218% so far this year and summer has not yet arrived

While announcing “the largest deployment of the State”, the Government of Spain has given a disturbing piece of information: the number of fires has skyrocketed by 218% so far this year. And yes, May isn’t over yet.

The fine print, however, is interesting. The data, as I say, refers to the number of reported fires, but does not directly correspond to the burned area. In fact, despite to the enormous ‘boom’ of fire outbreaksthe burned land is still below the average of the last decade.

In this sense, what is truly interesting is the paradoxThat with reservoirs at historic highs and no signs predicting an upcoming drought, the risk of fire has not stopped. In fact, it has skyrocketed.

Clarifying the data on the fire boom. Indeed, between January 1 and May 15, 2026, 127 fires were reported, compared to 40 in the same period in 2025. That is a growth of 218%. And it’s true that “tripling” the fires sounds like a lot: but of those 127 fires, only three were large forest fires and only six required major intervention.

The key fact, as we can see, is none of that. During the quarter, 12,946.66 hectares have burned; that is, 2.2 times more than in the same period of 2025 (5,822.12). But it is still 29.6 less than the average for the decade.

The key fact is that we have improved a lot in preparing for and putting out fires, but this year the situation is very complicated. The three ways we have of counting fires (Civil Protection, MITECO and EFFIS/Copernicus) say that the year is getting complicated at a forced pace.

Above all, because 2025 was a very bad year: three times as many hectares as average were burned.

Where is really the problem? In the concentration of damage. According to Greenpeace, less than 1% of fires They already concentrate 86% of the surface burned and the average size of the large fire has gone from 1,500 hectares to more than 6,000. In this context, having more fires means having a greater chance of one of them becoming a superfire.

And the countdown has already begun: the fire season is at the door and, despite the grandiose declarations of the administrations, we are not prepared.

Image | Marcus Kauffman

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