In July 2002, a handful of Moroccan soldiers landed on the islet of Perejil and raised a Moroccan flag there. The Spanish response came days later with a military operation so rapid and measured that it ended up becoming one of the diplomatic-military episodes strangest of the recent Mediterranean.
What worries Spain. While Europe concentrates much of its military attention in Ukraine and the eastern flank of NATO, a much closer concern is growing in Spain: the south of the Strait. The problem is not just Morocco or the military balance in the Maghreb, but the change in the United States’ attitude toward the region.
The appearance in Washington of official documents that describe Ceuta and Melilla like cities “under Spanish administration” in Moroccan territory has generated unprecedented alarm because it breaks a historical diplomatic taboo. For decades, the sovereignty of both cities was considered out of the question for Western allies. Now some American political sectors are beginning to treat her as an open dispute susceptible to future negotiation.
US pressure. Spanish concern does not arise solely from a parliamentary report, but from the political context that surrounds it. Republican congressman Mario Diaz-Balartclose to Marco Rubio’s entourage and aligned with positions very favorable to Rabat, has not only publicly defended that Ceuta and Melilla are “in Moroccan territory”, but that the own report encourages the State Department to promote diplomatic talks about their status.
All this coincides with the deterioration of the relationship between Donald Trump and the Spanish Government for military spendingNATO and the disagreements over Iran. In certain strategic Spanish sectors, the feeling is beginning to spread that Washington increasingly considers most useful to Morocco as a regional and less essential partner to Spain within its Mediterranean architecture.
Morocco and the new balance. The most profound change may be occurring on the other side of the Strait. Morocco has been accelerating for years its military modernization through agreements with the United States, Israel, Türkiye and France, while also promoting its own arms industry. Since 2021, industrial projects linked to drones, weapons and advanced military production have multiplied.
At the same time, Rabat has consolidated his diplomatic position in Washington after the American recognition of Western Sahara. For many Spanish analysts, the problem is no longer just migratory pressure or specific border crises, but the emergence of a regional power much more militarily connected to the West and increasingly secure in its strategic position.
Spain is left out. The other big concern is that Spain seems have been left out of the new network of military alliances in the Maghreb. Italy has become the main strategic partner of Algeria in the Mediterranean, expanding defense agreements, industrial cooperation and military coordination with one of the most powerful armies in Africa. Morocco, meanwhile, close ties with Washington, Paris and Tel Aviv. Spain has managed to rebuild diplomatic relations with both neighbors, but it hardly has any relevant agreements on defense matters.
This vacuum is beginning to be perceived as a serious problem in certain strategic circles, especially when linked reports to the Ministry of Defense they already admit that “South of the Strait of Gibraltar, military pressure is a reality.”
Ceuta and Melilla as vulnerable points. That is why the reports of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies raise with increasing clarity the need to a specific plan defense for Ceuta and Melilla. The focus goes far beyond the military and includes logistics, cybersecurity, maritime surveillance, institutional resilience and protection of critical infrastructure.
Fear does not necessarily point to an open conventional conflict, but rather to hybrid scenarios constant pressure: migration crises, diplomatic tensions, partial blockades or political attrition campaigns. Autonomous cities thus appear as especially sensitive enclaves due to their logistical dependence and geographical isolation.
A brutal return: geography. If you like, all this reflects something broader: the return of geography as a central factor of European politics. For years, Spain observed the Maghreb mainly from a migratory and commercial perspective, while the greatest threats seemed to be far from the western Mediterranean. But the war in Ukraine has accelerated regional rearmament and has reorganized alliances throughout the area.
And in the midst of this transformation, Spain begins to discover that one of its potentially most delicate fronts is not in the Baltic or in Eastern Europe, but just in the other side of the strait.
Image | US Army
In Xataka | ANDhe tunnel between Spain and Morocco seemed like a chimera. Now a tunnel boring machine manufacturer says it is viable
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings