When an international conflict breaks out, there is always someone who manages to take advantage. As the world watches with concern the Third Gulf War, thousands of kilometers from missiles and drones, the Panama Canal has been crowned the unexpected winner of this global chaos. What began as an energy crisis in the Persian Gulf has become, for the small Central American nation, a gold mine of historic dimensions.
Since the attacks triggered the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s main artery for fuel transportation, through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade transits – maritime trade has entered a phase of genuine desperation. The urgency to move goods has reached such a point that, as confirmed by Ricaurte Vásquez Moralesadministrator of the Panama Canal, a shipping company paid 4 million dollars in an auction just to skip the line and cross the interoceanic waterway as soon as possible.
The mechanism of urgency
After the Hormuz blockade, traffic through the Panamanian canal has experienced a general increase of close to 11%, registering peaks of up to an additional 20% on the days of greatest demand, as reported by the Panama Canal Authority itself BBC. During the first half of fiscal year 2026 – from October 2025 to March 2026 – the channel registered 6,288 transits, 224 more than in the same period of the previous year, according to data presented by the channel authority to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
In order to absorb this flow, nature has also been complicit. The deputy administrator of the channel, Ilya Espino de Marotta, explained to cnn that unusually intense rains during the dry season have kept Gatún and Alhajuela lakes at maximum levels, which has made it possible to manage between 40 and 41 daily transits compared to the usual average of 36. A notable recovery if one remembers that during the El Niño drought between 2023 and 2024, daily transits fell to 24. “The Panama Canal is open and fully operational,” assured Vásquez Morales. “Amid all the geopolitical complexities of today’s world, the Panama Canal remains open and reliable.”
But the true profitability is not only in the volume, but in the price of urgency. The companies they pay a fixed rate between 300,000 and 400,000 dollars to transit with prior reservation. Those who do not have it must compete in a relentless auction system where the highest bidder takes the coveted spot. Víctor Vial, vice president of finance of the channel, detailed in the same presentation to investors that the average auction price before the crisis ranged between 135,000 and 140,000 additional dollars. After the start of the conflict, “that average increased to approximately $385,000 between March and April.”
Desperation has pushed some oil companies to pay more than 3 million additional dollars to avoid waits, according to Bloomberg. The absolute record of 4 million is explained by Vásquez himself: “It was a ship that transported fuel to Europe, but they diverted it to Singapore, and it had to get there because Singapore is running out of fuel,” declared. With this extraordinary injection, Vial estimated that the growth of the channel’s income will be between 10% and 15% this year, although he warned that “we are still not doing the math or modifying our projections.”
A logistical lifesaver, not a replacement
The profitability of the channel is explained by the geography of the panic. More than 80% of the oil that usually transited through Hormuz was destined for the Asian continent, according to Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). When that route was blocked, buyers from Japan, South Korea, India and China turned to the United States Gulf Coast. According to data from the maritime intelligence company Kpler cited by BloombergUS crude oil exports through the Panama Canal have exceeded 200,000 barrels per day, approaching their maximum since July 2022.
The logic is implacable. A trip from the US Gulf Coast to Japan via the canal takes almost a month, while going around Africa around the Cape of Good Hope would take almost twice as long. “With all the bombings, missiles, drones, companies say it is safer and less expensive to cross through the Panama Canal,” explained Rodrigo Noriegalawyer and analyst in Panama City. “All of this is affecting global supply chains.”
Despite the boom, experts are categorical when comparing both routes. The EIA data, updated as of March 2026illustrate it crudely: in the first half of 2025, 20.9 million barrels of oil per day transited the Strait of Hormuz, compared to the 2.3 million that crossed the Panama Canal in its entire fiscal year 2025. A ratio of almost one to nine. Furthermore, VLCC-type supertankers—capable of transporting up to two million barrels in a single trip—are simply too big for the Panamanian locks, as both France 24 and OilPrice point out. Panama is a golden shortcut, but it does not have the muscles to replace the massive flow of the Persian Gulf.
Marc Gilbert, global leader of the Geopolitics Center at Boston Consulting Group, summed it up: “What is really happening is that energy from the United States is replacing the volumes that cargoes from the Gulf previously sent to Asia.” And he added that what this crisis shows is that “when a sea lane fails, the entire system must adapt.”
From economic bonanza to diplomatic minefield
Panama’s sudden strategic prominence has not gone unnoticed by the great powers. As reported by Al JazeeraWashington and its allies accused China at the end of April of applying “selective economic pressure”, retaining dozens of Panamanian-flagged ships in Chinese ports in retaliation for the annulment, by the Panamanian Supreme Court, of a port concession that a company linked to Hong Kong maintained over the ports of Balboa and Cristóbal.
Beijing categorically denied the accusations. The spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lin Jian, described them as statements that “lack foundation and distort reality”, and in turn accused the United States of politicizing and militarizing the port issue. Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino tried to reduce the tension by declaring that Panama “values respectful relations with all nations” and that he does not want to “get into controversy.”
Ferdinand Rauch, professor of economics at the University of St. Gallen, warned that any interruption in the canal, even temporary, “would cause temporary supply bottlenecks, volatility in stock markets, upward inflationary pressures and could significantly reduce global GDP if prolonged.”
But the real danger transcends diplomatic offices. Iran has shown that the use of drones and unilateral toll collection can turn a natural strait into a negotiating weapon. Ian Ralby, founder of shipping consultancy IR Consilium, warned at a Lloyd’s List briefing collected by The Telegraph that Tehran has shown that this tactic can “capture attention, gain credibility and provide a real advantage when negotiating with great powers”, and that “such a strategy is likely to be imitated elsewhere.”
The alarm signals have already occurred. Indonesia’s finance minister even publicly speculated about the possibility of charging tolls for ships in the strategic Strait of Malacca, through which 23.2 million barrels per day transit, before his government quickly rectified it. Richard Meade of Lloyd’s List Intelligence summed up the industry sentiment: “For the 25 years I’ve covered the maritime sector, it was always assumed that this would never happen. And yet, here we are. And the reality is, once it’s been done once, that threat is always going to be there.”
Panama’s economy, the great beneficiary
Meanwhile, for Panama the moment has a dimension that goes beyond the auctions. The country’s Constitution establishes that the canal must annually transfer its economic surpluses to the National Treasury. In fiscal year 2025, the channel generated revenues of about $5.7 billion, of which about $3 billion went to the Panamanian treasury, equivalent to 3.4% of the country’s GDP. according to data collected by BBC. If this year income grows between 10% and 15%, as the channel itself estimates, the country will receive an injection of resources that was not in any budget.
Panama has been able to take advantage of its moment, combining efficient management of its auctions with the benevolence of this season’s climate. But today’s financial feast is also the symptom of a global illness. While a country makes money by auctioning off shortcuts, global trade exhibits its profound vulnerability: the supply chains that drive the planet’s economy depend on water passages so narrow that a handful of drones can turn them into weapons. The day maritime transport depends on geopolitical blackmail and not free transit, the final cost will be inevitably borne by the global economy.
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