In the 16th century, several sultans of the Ottoman Empire came to seriously study the possibility of open an artificial road next to the Bosphorus to better control maritime traffic between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean… the project was canceled again and again for centuries due to wars, lack of money and strategic doubts, but the idea never completely disappeared from Türkiye.
The old Turkish obsession. While the Strait of Hormuz has become one of the largest sources of tension of the planet due to the war between Iran, the United States and Israel, an idea that has been around Turkey’s politics and strategy for years has once again gained prominence: building a gigantic artificial canal parallel to the Bosphorus to create a new sea route under Ankara’s direct control.
It is not just about decongesting Istanbul’s naval traffic. Behind the project appears a much greater ambition: converting a free natural passage into an alternative corridor capable of generating incomegeopolitical influence and pressure capacity on part of international trade. Precisely now, when Hormuz demonstrates the extent to which a maritime bottleneck can disrupt the world economythat old Turkish idea it rings again with more strength.
The Bosphorus and its importance. He Bosphorus It is much more than a strait that divides Istanbul between Europe and Asia. In reality it is the only sea exit towards the Mediterranean for countries such as Ukraine, Georgia, Bulgaria or part of southern Russia, and one of the busiest corridors in the world. Every year, thousands of oil tankers and freighters cross a narrow road, full of curves and surrounded by a gigantic city of millions of inhabitants.
Türkiye has been defending for years that this trafficking represents an enormous risk both for maritime security and for Istanbul itself, especially after several accidents of ships occurring next to historic and residential areas. The problem for Ankara is that the Bosphorus is regulated by the Montreux Convention of 1936, which guarantees free transit and greatly limits the possibility of charging direct tolls to ships.
The idea that could change the rules. There appears the real core of the project Istanbul Canal. As it is an artificial route and not a natural strait, Türkiye could try apply rates and services transit routes similar to those of Suez or Panama without formally breaking international maritime law. For years, this possibility seemed more like a geopolitical fantasy than a near reality, but the Hormuz crisis aims to restore prominence to an uncomfortable question: what happens when large maritime corridors stop being simple routes and become tools of economic and political pressure.
Iran has already hinted at the possibility of demanding payments in Hormuz, something that has alarmed organisms international organizations and the great maritime powers. In this context, the old Turkish project begins to fit within a broader trend: transforming certain strategic steps into infrastructures capable of generate multi-million dollar income and increase the political weight of the countries that control them.
Istanbul, Türkiye, divided by the Golden Horn and the Bosphorus Strait.
Erdogan’s dream. Yes, because Recep Tayyip Erdogan turned the Istanbul Canal into one of its great symbols politicians. In fact, he has compared it to Suez and Panama, he has described it as a project aimed at transforming the Türkiye’s international role and has presented it as a work capable of turning Istanbul into one of the great logistics centers in the world.
On paper, the channel would have 45 kilometers longwould allow the passage of large oil tankers and freighters and would be accompanied by ports, logistics zones, new urbanizations and enormous real estate developments. It would also physically split the European part of Istanbul, creating a kind of gigantic artificial island between the Bosphorus and the new canal.
The big question: if anyone would pay to use it. The enormous problem of the project has always been the same. Although Türkiye could charge tolls on the new canal, the Bosphorus would still exist as a free alternative. That doubt has been haunting the plan for years: why a shipping company would agree to pay millions to cross an artificial route when it has another relatively nearby toll-free route.
Ankara is confident that congestion, navigation risks and possible delays will push many companies to choose the new corridor, especially for dangerous goods and large tankers. But many economists and maritime experts believe that the real profitability of the project remains uncertain and it would depend on very specific international scenarios, precisely like those that the Hormuz crisis is causing today.
Criticism within Türkiye. Furthermore, the Istanbul Canal It has never been solely a discussion about maritime trade. For years it has been accumulating criticism for its ecological impacturban and economic. Scientists and urban planners warn that the canal would cross forests, aquifers, agricultural areas and very sensitive ecosystems in the north of Istanbul.
Not only that. There are also fears about how alter the currents between the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara, affect marine biodiversity or increase problems related to earthquakes and landslides in an already very seismically vulnerable region. Plus: the projected cost (which different estimates place between 15,000 and more than 60,000 million dollars) continues to generate doubts even among sectors that support strengthening Turkey’s strategic position.
Hormuz has reactivated the dream. For years, the Istanbul Canal seemed to move between bombastic announcements, delays, political disputes and financial doubts. but the war around Hormuz has returned to put on the table a much broader issue: the enormous power that certain maritime points have to alter supply chains, energy markets and entire geopolitical balances.
Türkiye now watches as the entire world discusses blockades, maritime insurance, tolls and control of strategic routes while your old project appears again, at least in some sectors of the country, as a possible tool to increase your global influence in a century where maritime corridors once again become central pieces of international power.
Image | Wikimedia, NASA
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