In the late 80s, during the call “tanker war”the United States even escorted civilian ships in the Persian Gulf under flags changed in a hurryin an operation so delicate that any error could have triggered a direct conflict between powers. Even so, the simple transit of each ship became an almost surgical operation.
A blocked strait that paralyzes half the planet. Since the start of the war in Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has become a critical bottleneck for the global economy. It is estimated that at this time there are around of 1,000 ships who remain trapped since the beginning of the conflict and about 20,000 sailors They remain on board with increasingly limited supplies.
Not only that. The blockade imposed by Iran after the outbreak of war with the United States and Israel has reduced traffic at minimum levels and has stressed energy markets. The situation is such that analysts warn of a possible breaking point if the situation continues, since a fifth of the world’s oil normally circulates through this route.
The US plan. In this scenario, Washington has launched the so-called as “Project Freedom” with an idea as direct as it is risky. Free trapped ships guiding them one by one outside the strait, yes, through coordination between countries, insurers and logistics operators.
However, after the announcement it was learned that the key to the plan is what it does not include and that has become its great “surprise”: in reality there will be no naval escorts traditional boats accompanying each ship, according to Washington officials. Although the United States deploy destroyersaircraft and thousands of troops in the region, traffic will rely more on traffic management and indirect deterrence than on direct armed protection.
Diplomacy, threats and an extremely fragile balance. The movement also occurs in parallel to indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The messages at the moment are rather mixed, combining diplomatic optimism on the one hand… with strong warnings from both sides on the other.
On one side, the United States insists that it will respond forcefully to any interference in the process. Iran, for its part, has just made it clear through its news agencies that any foreign military presence in the strait will be considered a direct threatso the United States “plan” threatens not to occur.
A military deployment present but contained. There is no doubt, despite the absence of escorts direct, the environment remains heavily militarized. The United States maintains a wide presence with aircraft carriers, aircraft and unmanned platforms ready to act if the situation escalates.
At the same time, naval mines have been detected and specific attacks against ships in the area. In other words, in the current scenario, transit has become an operation of calculated risk where coordination replaces direct protection.
The real pulse: control, pressure and global economy. Beyond the movement of ships, what is at stake is the control of one of the most important energy arteries of the world.
Iran uses the blockade as a pressure tool in the midst of negotiations, while the United States tries to unblock the situation in its own way and with one caveat: without legitimizing that control. The result is an intermediate solution that summarizes well the tension of the moment: intervene just enough so that the boats leave without causing an escalation that blows everything up into the air.
Image | Iranian Media
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