If we have learned anything at this point, it is that wars are like dominoes. Once one begins, a series of springs are activated that expand its consequences. In less than two weeks, what began as a bombing by the US and Israel in Iran has ended up escalating to a conflict in the Persian Gulf, has mined the image security that nations such as the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait have built for years and has triggered the price of oilthreatening to infect the rest of the economy until reaching shopping baskets.
Now this earthquake could have another unexpected effect: increasing tourist demand in Spain, a country that has been chaining for years record numbers and aspires to surpass the barrier of one hundred million of international visitors.
Of wars and travelers. It has little of mystery. When you go on vacation (and pay for it) you look for rest, good food, comfort, landscapes, heritage, beaches, museums… The “menu” may vary from one tourist to another, but what it does not include (usually) are kamikaze drones and the constant threat of attacks by an Islamic regime, which is what is happening now in the Gulf.
What began as a US-Israeli offensive in Iran has ended up escalating in a matter of days to affect neighboring countries such as the Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, directly hitting their economies.
The example of the Emirates. It is not just that Iran is punishing its Middle Eastern neighbors for their more or less veiled support for the US, it is that Tehran has known how to hit where it hurts most. Your attacks have affected to energy installations and planted the instability in the Strait of Hormuz, turning oil into a weapon of war; but they have also undermined the image of reliability that nations like the UAE have built for themselves (with a checkbook) for decades.
The clearest example Dubai probably leaves it. In just one week it went from being the world’s mecca for expats to seeing foreigners paying hundreds of dollars or driving for hours and hours to cross the border with Oman and leave the country. It only took a series of Iranian attacks that forced the operations of the hubs Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports.
Less reliable destinations. A few days ago Mabrian, a company dedicated to analyzing tourism markets, asked how the Iran war is impacting the sector and obtained a series of striking conclusions. The main one is that the attractiveness of the Persian Gulf destinations has been seriously affected. Especially in the eyes of travelers from two key markets: Europe and the US.
To be more precise, the Perception of Safety Index (PSI) plummeted by 81 points (out of 100) in Bahrain, 56.7 in Oman and 54.9 in Qatar. In all three cases the indicator marked minimums. Although they have come out somewhat better, the scenario is not buoyant for the UAE (-48.3 pts) and Saudi Arabia (-13.6). At least that was the photo at the beginning of March, after the attack that killed Ali Khamenei.
A contagious trend. The most curious thing is that not only the countries directly hit by Iran are penalized. Others that are more or less nearby and with powerful tourism sectors do the same. Mabrian appreciate a shock wave that has reached Egypt, Jordan and Türkiye. “Although they are not involved, they experience a ‘contagion’ side effect attributable to their proximity and perceived exposure as part of the conflict’s sphere of influence.”
The case of Jordan is especially serious. Barely a month ago his PSI marked 77.6 points out of 100. When Mabrian published his new reportOn March 6, that indicator had plummeted 30.3 points, although with “gradual signs of recovery.” Despite its distance, Türkiye’s PSI had also suffered, losing 25.8 points. In the case of Egypt, which shares a long border with Israel, the perception of security decreased 7.8 points.
A turbulent market. That countries like the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Turkey or Egypt lose attractiveness for tourists is curious, but… Could it affect Spain and other European countries in some way? For Mabrian the answer It is clear: yes. A week ago the firm appreciated “the first signs of change in European and American tourist demand”, a “detour” of travelers who choose to look beyond the Middle East. And that directly involves Spain.
“The escalation of conflict in this region is beginning to redirect demand from major European markets and American travelers,” comments Mabrianwhich warns that the trend is more pronounced among US travelers. After the attack on February 28, Kuwait’s PSI contracted in that market by 87.3 points, that of the UAE by 79.2 and that of Arabia by 17.8. Even Egypt fell 32.6. The company warns that the short-term outlook is not rosy.
Where to travel? That is the question that many tourists will probably ask themselves in the coming weeks. For the company, the answer is clear: customers from crucial source markets, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy or the US, will be “redirected” to various points. Either they will look for destinations closer to their own countries, which would favor Spain especially in the case of Italians and Germans, or they will explore options in Asia. Mabrian warns Yes, this last trend will be conditioned by the price of the flights.
Destinations such as Thailand and Sri Lanka have not been immune to the shockwaves of the Gulf War either. Over the last few days, news of European tourists has circulated (including spanish) that have been affected in those destinations. Not because they suffer from the direct impact of the conflict, but because their connections with Spain depended on stopovers at airports in the Middle East (Dubai, Doha…) that have been hit by Iranian forces.
Mabrian still appreciates a third possibility and that is that there is some demand that shifts towards “substitute” destinations such as South Africa, Maldives, Peru or Brazil.
Canceled trips. Mabrian is not the only one who anticipates a change of scenery. a few days ago they confirmed it also to The Country from TUI, Europe’s leading tourism group: “We could see greater short-term interest in Mediterranean destinations such as Spain, Portugal and Italy.” There are operators that have already registered trip cancellations in that region, which leads professionals in the sector to think about a possible transfer of demand.
Especially from tourists who were planning to travel to Egypt or Türkiye and could now look with greater interest at southern Spain and destinations such as the Canary Islands. Although there are many unknowns ahead (the main one being how long the war will last) in the sector there is a certain “fear” of traveling to affected destinations and “concern” looking ahead to the coming months. Of course it’s not all advantages. This scenario could alienate clients from the Persian Gulf and Asia with high purchasing power.
Images | Martijn Vonk (Unsplash) and Nenad Radojčić (Unsplash)
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