In western France, off the coast of Brittany, there is a naval base practically invisible to the public where some of the quietest submarines on the planet are hidden. Each of them can spend months under the ocean without being detected and carry missiles capable of traveling thousands of kilometers. Since the 1960s, at least one of these submarines has been permanently patrolling in secret, ready to act in a matter of minutes if the order comes.
The return of an old idea. In 1958, Charles de Gaulle made a decision that would mark French defense policy for decades: develop a nuclear deterrent completely independent of the United States. The logic was simple but radical for your time. Although Washington was an indispensable ally, its interests did not always have to coincide with those of Europe, and in an extreme crisis the continent could be left unprotected.
Since then, the French nuclear doctrine has maintained a deliberate ambiguity about which countries or territories come inside of the “vital interests” that would justify a nuclear response. That idea, conceived in the middle of the Cold War as a guarantee of strategic sovereignty, returns today to the center of debate European in a context of uncertainty about the American commitment to the defense of the continent.
From ambiguity to deterrence. Now, President Emmanuel Macron has decided to turn that strategic tradition into a concrete proposal. Under the concept “advance deterrence”France proposes for the first time deploying elements of its nuclear force on the territory of European allied countries, participating with them in strategic exercises and coordinating more closely the nuclear protection of the continent.
The proposal represents a step beyond the classic French ambiguity: although arms control would remain exclusively in the hands of the French president, his presence or training in other countries would send a direct signal that the French nuclear umbrella can extend beyond its borders.
A nuclear archipelago in Europe. The operational concept that Paris is exploring is based on disperse part of your deterrence strategic throughout Europe. In practice it could involve temporary deployments of Rafale fighters capable of carrying nuclear weapons in allied countriesstrategic patrols or joint exercises that integrate conventional forces from other European states into the French deterrence system.
Macron has described that network as a kind of “archipelago of power”, designed to complicate the calculation of any potential adversary. Although France would maintain absolute control over the use of weapons, the physical presence of these means in different parts of the continent would reinforce the credibility of the deterrent message.
Eight countries begin to move. The media reported this week that the initiative has ceased to be a simple strategic hypothesis and is beginning to take political shape. Germany, Poland, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Belgium, Greece and Finland they already participate in talks with Paris to explore different levels of cooperation on nuclear deterrence.
Some of these countries are studying participating in French strategic exercises, while others are analyzing the possible temporary deployment of French nuclear capabilities on their territory. In any case, this turn reflects a profound change in the European attitude: for decades, most governments avoided seriously discussing any alternative to the US nuclear umbrella.
The factor that changes everything. What has transformed the scenario is both the French proposal and the geopolitical context convulsed. Of course, there they appear first of all the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moscow’s accelerated rearmament and doubts about the United States’ military commitment to Europe, all issues that have forced many governments to rethink the continent’s security architecture.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his rhetoric about reducing the American role in European defense have ended accelerate that reflection French that seems to be reaching several members of the continent. In this climate, the old Paris doctrine (which for decades seemed like a vestige of the Cold War) is beginning to be perceived as a possible centerpiece of a more autonomous European deterrence.
A limited but deterrent arsenal. France has around 290-300 nuclear warheads deployed in strategic submarines and combat aircraft, an arsenal much smaller than that of major nuclear powers such as the United States, Russia or China. However, French doctrine does not seek numerical parity, but rather the ability to inflict “unacceptable” damage to any aggressor.
That logic is the basis of the concept nuclear deterrent: It is enough for the adversary to believe the possibility of a devastating response is credible for the attack to become too risky. With the new strategy, Paris aims to demonstrate that this principle can be extended beyond its territory and become, for the first time explicitly, one of the pillars of European security.
Image | US Navy
In Xataka | In the midst of the Cold War, France designed a nuclear rearmament plan for Europe. Now it’s loud again
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