In major international crises there is a almost imperceptible moment in which the tension stops being rhetorical and begins to be measured in real movements. History shows that when the pieces begin to be placed with that precision, the outcome It rarely depends on words alone. Therefore, when they pass 20 tanker aircraft across Europe in a single day and the maps tell us that the largest aircraft carrier in the United States is four days to reach its destination, the outcome can only be an ockham razor.
A display that is already historic. Of course, we don’t know for sure whether the United States is going to attack Iran. What we do know is that it is running the largest air deployment in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, a concentration of power which cannot be explained as simple diplomatic pressure.
There are currently dozens of stealth fighters, command and control aircraft, anti-missile systems and two aircraft carrier groups taking up positions while the White House insists that diplomacy still on the table. The question is not whether Washington has the capacity to strike, but when and to what extent it would decide to do so. And if the satellite maps they don’t lieon Sunday morning everything would be ready.
Stealth fighters in motion. The radars have indicated For several days now, the F-22, F-35 and F-16 have been crossing the Atlantic in waves, reinforcing bases in Jordan and Saudi Arabia that are becoming launching pads for a sustained campaign.
Them F-15E are addedelectronic warfare aircraft and air communications nodes that allow complex operations to be coordinated. It is not the pattern a specific attack like the one perpetrated in Iran with the Operation Midnight Hammerbut rather the architecture of a “heavy” and prolonged air war, one capable to last weeksbut more, with targets ranging from nuclear facilities to missile depots and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps centers.
AWACS to the limit. There are six Boeing E-3 Sentry, That is, almost 40% of an aging fleet with low availability, warning and control systems that have been sent to Europe and the Middle East. We talk about the floating brain that manage air combatcoordinates interceptions and detects drones and cruise missiles at low altitude.
Its massive deployment indicates that planners are setting up an environment “high intensity battle”but at the same time it reveals a structural vulnerability of Washington: the United States depends on a small and old fleet to direct one of the most complex campaigns on the planet.
U.S. Ford
Patriots, THAAD and defending against retaliation. There is no doubt, in such a movementreinforcement is not just offensive. Patriot Systems and THAAD They have come forward to protect the surrounding 30,000-40,000 soldiers Americans scattered in the region and allies like Israel.
This gives us an idea of what to expect. Washington assumes that any attack would trigger a response with ballistic missiles, kamikaze drones and possibly attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz. The deployment seeks to ensure that, if retaliation comes, it can absorb the blow without paralyzing the operation.
Two aircraft carriers and a “navy” visible in space. He USS Abraham Lincoln already operates in the area with Aegis destroyers and nuclear submarines, while the USS Gerald R. Ford keep it up from the Atlantic after crossing near Gibraltar.
As we said, if it maintains its current speed, it will be off the coast of Israel on sunday morning and will be able to reinforce air defense in the event of an immediate Iranian retaliation. Two combat groups with F/A-18, F-35C and electronic warfare aircraft provide mobile power, missile defense and sustained strike capability. That is to say, it is not a symbolic presence, it is an unequivocal sign of preparation for real combat.
Trajectory of the American aircraft carrier US Ford
Tehran, Moscow and Beijing for internships. While Washington concentrates forces, Iran is currently carrying out naval exercises with Russia and China in the Strait of Hormuz. The presence of Russian and Chinese ships does not alter the military balance against the United States Navy, but it adds a layer if you want. politics and risk which requires planning with greater caution.
In this regard, Iran has also closed parts of the strait for maneuvers with anti-ship missiles and drones, stressing that any war would not be a limited exchange, but an escalation with global impact on the oil and sea routes.
An outrage for ambiguous objectives. The accumulation of forces It allows, a priori, multiple scenarios: from a limited attack against nuclear facilities to a campaign aimed at degrading missile capacity or even weakening the regime.
Be that as it may, technological and aerial superiority does not resolve the political mystery of what would happen next. Without ground forces or a broad coalition, a protracted war would depend almost exclusively on air and naval power. In that regard, The New York Times said that the White House has received plans designed to maximize the damage, but has not yet made a final decision.
Pressure as a strategic weapon. With such a scenario there are not many options. Either the deployment is a prelude to an attack, or we are dealing with a tool unprecedented pressure aimed at forcing concessions at the negotiating table.
Some analysts believe that the show of force they have in front of them right now could convince to Tehran that Washington is going all out. Others warn that the same preparation that increases military credibility also reduce the margin to retreat without any political cost.
One thing is clear: at this point, the movement of parts It is already historical and hyperbolic, and the only thing left is to know if it will remain a threat or will become an open war of unpredictable dimensions.
Image | TREVOR MCBRIDE, US Army Aerial, RawPixel, BORN
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