The EU has finally become independent of Russian gas. Now faces an equal uncertain dependence: the US LNG

In the last five years, the supply of liquefied natural gas in Europe depended mainly on Russian reservesrepresenting almost 40% of imports thanks to their competitive prices and an extensive network of gas pipelines. However, Europe has sought to reduce the dependence on Russian gas by the Ukraine War, facing an uncertain energy panorama. Also, still imports Russian LNG record amounts By boat and Hungary and Slovakia oppose restrictive measures.

The reserves, which had reached historical levels before winter thanks to storage policies, are now beginning to descend. Given this situation, Europe has chosen to diversify its sources and increase LNG imports from other countries, being the United States one of the emerging suppliers. However, this transition will not be easy.

Short. At the time he assumed, in less than 24 hours, Donald Trump signed an executive order with the different measures that Ipso facto was going to take. In addition, the issue of gas and tariffs to Europe comes before assumingbut now the president of the United States has launched a warning to the European Union demanding that more oil and liquefied natural gas be bought or, otherwise, will face the imposition of tariffs.

This threat occurs in a context of commercial and energy tensions, where the US seeks to gain ground in the European market, which has historically depended on Russia’s energy imports. However, the EU does not have a centralized purchasing power that allows it to negotiate large -scale contracts, since it is individual companies that decide where to buy the gas.

Evolution of European LNG imports in recent years

The evolution of the gas supply. This graph represents the supply of LNG in Europe, which has experienced notable changes such as more than 15 years ago liquefied natural gas came in most countries such as Qatar and other producers. However, Russia’s agency was marking over time.

However, the position of the United States as a supplier of Europe is from 2020, which is observed how it is consolidated. This was due, in large part, to the sanctions and commercial restrictions imposed on the Kremlin, which forced the EU has diversify its sources. In the last year, US imports have reached historical levels, even exceeding traditional suppliers.

Europe’s position. Although Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, has shown its willingness to replace Russian gas with American LNG, the EU does not have the centralized purchase capacity on a large scale, so each member country negotiates it independently. For its part, Hungary and Slovakia, more aligned with the Kremlin For their energy treatment, they may not share these EU measures.

However, Brussels aims to reduce the dependence of Russian fossil fuels for two years, but the high price of American LNG compared to Russian gas remains an important obstacle. In addition, the EU is struggling to protect its industries and reduce high energy prices, especially in countries such as Germany, which depend on gas for its industry.

And Russia? Despite the Ukraine War and the sanctions imposed by the United States and the EU, Russia remains the largest gas supplier for the latter. The reason is because European companies continue to import large volumes of Russian LNG due to the lowest prices and the lack of short -term affordable alternatives. For its part, the Kremlin is looking for new markets for its energy and is approaching more to the Asian continent.

Commercial relations. The production capacity of American LNG is increasing, and more natural gas plants are expected to enter into operation in the coming years. By 2026, the United States, Canada and Qatar may meet much of the European LNG demand, thus reducing the need for Russian gas. In addition, the EU seeks to reduce its natural gas consumption by 25% by 2030, modifying import and market patterns. However, prices will remain a considerable obstacle for total change to American LNG.

Image | Unspash

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