He map of the world’s (known) rare earth reserves makes one thing clear: China is the absolute queen. Although They are neither earth nor are they rareconstitute a real poker of aces in the game of global geopolitics, energy and technology. And it’s not just about having lanthanides in your territory, it’s about discovering them and knowing how to extract them. Within that graph, in the Asia section, we can see that Japan does not even appear on the map. And it’s not because there aren’t any, because there are, there are. But so far they have turned to their trading partner and neighbor: China.
Where Christ lost the lighter. In 2024 Japan found an impressive site of 230 million tons that would put it on the front line. But that site had small print: it is at the bottom of the sea, in a coral atoll in the Pacific about 1,900 kilometers southeast of Tokyo. Fair where they suspected. Last summer discovered his roadmap with a first stage that would begin right now, in January 2026.
Japan and China, on the brink of the abyss. The two Asian countries are mired in a deep diplomatic crisis. The great trigger was the statements of the Japanese Prime Minister at the end of 2025 suggesting that a Chinese military intervention in Taiwan could be considered an “existential crisis” for Japan, which would open the doors to a Japanese military response.
The consequences were immediate: China considered it interference and began to intensify its maritime patrols and areas near Japanese waters in a move that has displeased the Japanese government. consider it reckless in terms of security.
2026 also began with trade consequences from China such as the veto on seafood products, restrictions on tourism and an embargo on the export of dual-use goods (civil and military), including rare earths. So Japan has to expedite another way to obtain rare earths to feed its automotive industry in particular and technology in general. And he has done it.
Just in time. Given the rough patch he’s going through with his partner and neighbor, the timing couldn’t be better. Last Monday a mining ship set sail for that remote atoll located in front of the Minami-Torishima Island to begin a month-long mission in which the famous Japanese drill ship Chikyu and a crew of 130 people will have to go all out, literally, to try to continuously extract rare earths from that succulent seabed six kilometers deep. And we say “try” because It’s the first time it’s been done. If successful, a full-scale mining test will follow in February 2027.
Japan’s “detox” of Chinese rare earths. It is not the first time that Japan has been in this situation. Without going any further, in 2010 China retained exports after an incident that took place between a Chinese fishing boat and two Japanese patrol boats near the Senkaku Islands (administered by Japan but claimed by China). At that time, Japan managed to reduce their dependence from China from 90 to 60%.
The alternative route involved investments in projects abroad (for example, from Australia) or promoting recycling and manufacturing processes that are more independent of the base material. But now it is different because who can obtain rare earths within their own territory.
Looking to the horizon. Since the diplomatic crisis of 2010, Japan has been investigating in search of mineral reserves. Without going any further, this one on Minamitori Island has been in development since 2018 and the Japanese government has invested more than 40 billion yen (250 million dollars) since then. It was previously considered economically unviable, but between China’s embargo and the willingness to pay higher prices, it already seems more plausible, explains Kotaro Shimizuprincipal analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting.
The senior director of economic security policy at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan on the China Talk podcast This week’s issue revealed how the government must continually remind companies of the importance of diversifying their supply chains: “Sometimes an event occurs and the company reacts, but when the event ends, the company forgets. We have to maintain a continuous effort”
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Cover | Peggy Greb and Gleam – Photo taken by Gleam., CC BY-SA 3.0
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