What began more or less a year ago in a hesitant way has become a certainty: Europe has entered a new phase hybrid confrontationone where traditional lines of defense become insufficient in the face of a range of tactics that combine cheap technology, covert actors and deliberate strategy to saturate to the states with ambiguous threats.
The last barrier that has been jumped is, perhaps, the most dangerous.
Disturbing mutation. The recent drone flyover on the nuclear submarine base of Île Longue, in France, and the immediate declaration a few hours ago of the state of emergency in Lithuania due to balloons from Belarus, these are not isolated incidents but manifestations of a growing pattern which seeks to explore vulnerabilities, overwhelm alert systems and expose the fragility of European security.
Both episodes show the extent to which hybrid warfare has ceased to be an abstraction and has become an operational reality that affects civil aviation, nuclear infrastructure and political stability on the eastern border of the European Union.
Drones on nuclear deterrence. That five drones of unknown origin managed to lurk over the weekend on Île Longue, the most sensitive installation of the French deterrence apparatus, marked a turning point. This base houses the four nuclear ballistic submarines of the French Navy, the core of the capability “second blow” of the country. The military response It was immediate: deployment of units, electronic counterattacks using jammers and activation of the alert protocol for strategic installations.
It turns out that no drone was neutralized nor identified to its operators, which increases the feeling, once again, of a threat that operates deliberately in the dark. France had already registered similar raidsbut the temporal coincidence with others in Europe and the systematic use of drones near bases with nuclear weapons reinforce the suspicion that these maneuvers seek to test response times, map defensive patterns and, above all, generate a climate of concern both among military officials and the population.
Extra ball. Although the French prosecutor’s office insists that there is no evidence of foreign interference, strategic context points to more than just random flights: from Ireland to Denmark, passing through the Netherlands and Germany, anonymous raids on airports, air bases and reinforced security zones have proliferated, many of them documented by military authorities that do not rule out the hand of Moscow.
A vulnerability and pressure of airspace. He episode in Irelandwhere several military-style drones appeared in the air corridor planned for the landing of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, raised even more alarm. The reason: Ireland lacks radars operational, it does not have solid protocols to classify aerial threats and has minimal capabilities to counter drones, a strategic void that was exposed in the face of a possible operation designed to highlight national weaknesses.
On a continent where drones have already forced to close airports Repeatedly, the Irish incident fits into a sequence of actions that seek to demonstrate that any country, even one that is not militarily involved in the war, can be vulnerable. Irish experts they warn that, regardless of the authorship, the confusion generated and the inability to react clearly represent a victory for any actor seeking to erode European cohesion.
An official inspects a balloon used to transport cigarettes, in an undated photo released by the Lithuanian State Border Guard Service
Balloons from Belarus. In parallel, a few hours ago Lithuania was forced to declare the state of emergency due to the constant arrival of weather balloons from Belarus. At first glance, these devices seem harmless, mere carriers of contraband. But in logic of hybrid warfarewhat is important is not so much the sophistication of the medium but its ability to force a disproportionate state response.
The balloons have invaded Lithuanian airspace, forcing to close repeatedly Vilnius airport and have introduced concrete risks for civil aviation, forcing authorities to mobilize civil, police and military resources.
A war of attrition. For Lithuania, a country bordering both Belarus and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, these incidents are not perceived as minor events, but as part of an attrition strategy intended to saturate their surveillance capacity and underline their exposure. After months of drone incursions, cyberattacks and electronic warfare, Vilnius interprets balloons as another step in a calculated escalation that uses cheap means to obtain strategic effects.
Signs and a more aggressive phase. If you also want, what connects drones on French nuclear submarines, unidentified devices over Ireland and smuggling balloons that force an entire country to activate a state of emergency is its strategic role: demonstrate that Europe can be destabilized with simple tools, difficult to attribute and capable of generating considerable psychological, economic and political costs.
So far, each incident individually can be minimized, but together they paint a picture. simultaneous pressure map on European airspace, on critical infrastructure and on the institutional cohesion of the EU. France already speaks openly about a “hybrid confrontation”Denmark attributes some incidents to “hybrid threats” of probable Russian origin and the Baltic countries consider each action a destabilization test. The result is a Europe that recognize the dangerbut that is still far from a unified response capable of tackling a threat that thrives precisely on ambiguity, the proliferation of small incidents and the difficulty of proving direct responsibility.
An unprecedented threshold. What does seem crystal clear is that these episodes as a whole reveal that Europe is crossing a threshold where conventional security is no longer enough. Russian hybrid warfare (or, at least, the widespread perception of its advance) is now manifesting itself in ways that disrupt civil lifecompromise nuclear assets and overwhelm state apparatuses where they are most vulnerable.
The presence of drones on a base that houses the french nuclear deterrent and the need for Lithuania to activate extraordinary powers to stop improvised balloons are signs of the same trend: the adversary does not need spectacular victories to cause damage because it is enough to multiply ambiguous threats until stability is eroded.
Perhaps that is why the big question has been on the table for so long: how to respond to a war that is rarely declared but that every day pierces a little more airspace, critical infrastructure and, ultimately, strategic tranquility.
Image | PXHereLithuanian State Border Guard Service
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