In October, Ukrainian intelligence carried out an investigation. Then he found, once again, that the hole that exists around international sanctions it is palpable and numeric. kyiv had begun analyzing parts of Moscow’s latest cruise and ballistic missiles. And what they found was a deja vu.
The latest: A thorough investigation of the Russian Iskander missile clearly points to a superpower.
Lethality on the production line. The ballistic missile Iskander-Mthe heart of Russian terror against Ukrainian cities, rests on a solid fuel whose half should be composed by ammonium perchlorate. It turns out that Russia, after decades of industrial decline since the Soviet collapse, can no longer produce the critical ingredient to make it at scale: high purity sodium chlorate.
This technical deficiency, more than any of its military forces, defines the strategic vulnerability of a weapon that has devastated places like Kryvyi Rih, where, for example, an impact on November 2024 He killed a mother and her three children. The sustained decline in Ukrainian interception rates, even in areas defended by Patriot, demonstrates that every missile that manages to overcome air defense hits densely populated areas and translates that industrial dependence into human tragedy.
The network that supplies. Now, in a RUSI investigationUkrainian intelligence has found that, in the absence of domestic capacity, Moscow depends on two essential suppliers: China, which supplies 61% of imported sodium chlorate, and Uzbekistan, which supplies the remaining 39% via Farg’onaazota plant acquired by Indorama for $140 million and family-related to Lakshmi Mittal’s conglomerate.
In this way, between 2024 and mid-2025, only the Uzbek factory sent more than 18 million of dollars in inputs, part of a total flow close to 37 million that sustains the production of missiles used repeatedly against the ArcelorMittal steel plant in Kryvyi Rih, paradoxical victim of the same plot business that unintentionally contributes to fueling the Russian program.
Launch of an Iskander in 2018
The hole in the sanctions regime. Although sodium chlorate is included in European sanctions as a substance that supports Russian industrial capacity (the EU cannot move it), the main suppliers (Uzbeks and Chinese) continue without being punished. In fact, specialist Olena Yurchenko identifies three structural failures: the lack of comprehensive coverage of all solid fuel precursors, the absence of restrictions on third-country suppliers, and the omission of sanctions on Russian exporters and importers directly involved.
The result is a perfectly functional supply chain that operates between the legal shadowsallowing Russia to replenish its arsenal despite the Western embargo. Experts they point out that this phenomenon is repeated in sectors where Western companies indirectly tolerate “parallel import” circuits.
Geopolitics and political calculation. They remembered in Forbes that it would be politically more acceptable for the EU to sanction Uzbekistan, whose economic weight and ties with Europe are lower than those of China. There is no doubt, punishing Chinese suppliers would imply deep diplomatic and commercial frictions, which explains the reluctance of some Member States.
However, while those decisions are postponed, Russia is advancing new domestic production complexes that will not be operational until between 2025 and 2027prolonging a critical period in which foreign dependence continues to be the Achilles heel of its missile industry.
The strategic irony that sustains the conflict. ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, the city’s economic pillar and a recurring target of the Iskander, has contributed more than 500 million in taxes to Ukraine and more than 18 million in humanitarian aid since the invasion. The drama is evident: the same business structure that contributes to rebuilding Ukraine is, on a distant link in its corporate orbit, linked to production of the missiles that destroy their infrastructure.
If the EU were to simultaneously sanction Uzbek suppliers and major Chinese exporters, Russia would face years of instability, high costs and reduced industrial flexibility. It could even be forced to redesign its engines and fuels, compromising the reliability of its arsenal for an extended period.
What is at stake. If you like, the decisive question is whether European politics will have the courage to close the loopholes that allow global conglomerates benefit (directly or indirectly) from both sides of the war. The reason is crystal clear: as long as this legal and economic exception persists, the Iskander They will continue to fly and slaughter, sustained by a supply chain that Russian technology alone cannot replace.
Image | Vitaly V. KuzminMil.ru
In Xataka | For years Europe has wondered how to stop the Russian ghost fleet. Ukraine just showed you the way: with AI
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings