In the month of July he gave himself A situation which could pass perfectly through the stage of the filming of an action movie. In the early hours of a Monday, the stations of one meter began to fill, but instead of passengers loaded with wallets and suitcases, military, soldiers and more soldiers armed with anti -tanks. The place gave us an idea that this was not a movie, it was a simulation for what can happen: Taiwan.
In fact, that possibility seems closer than ever from space.
A huge display. I told this week The New York Times. Satellite images show that China is transforming its coast against Taiwan into a vast missile launch platform that constitutes the cornerstone of Xi Jinping strategy to force reunification and, at the same time, challenge US military power in Asia.
He Pentagon estimates that the arsenal of the missile force, responsible for nuclear and conventional vectors, has increased by 50% in just four years until reaching about 3,500 units. Although the exact number of missiles located directly in front of the Strait is not known, the images leave no doubt: expanded bases, with tens of additional launch ramps and new facilities in key provinces such as Anhui or Jiangxi.
New generation missiles. Among the displayed systems are the Dongfeng-17a hypersonic missile with great maneuvering capacity and difficult to interceptand the Dongfeng-26, known as The “Guam Express” due to its reach to US bases in the Pacific. These missiles can carry both conventional and nuclear heads and are transportable by road, which increases their mobility and complicates their tracking by enemy intelligence.
The pentagon calculates that Beijing already has half a thousand df-26which makes this weapon a pillar of its strategy of denial of access against US forces in Guam, Japan or aircraft carrier deployed in the region.
Exercises, deployments and messages. Practices on the Oriental China Coast They include simulated releases From agricultural fields, hidden or esplanade valleys next to highwayswhich demonstrates an effort to integrate missiles into the field in a flexible and dispersed way. The Times told that maneuvers have a double function: operational preparation and political signal.
For Taiwan, the message is that resisting would be useless before an overwhelming arsenal; For Washington, that intervening would be too expensive. It is not, therefore, only military capacity: missiles They are the starting point of any Chinese coercion strategy and, in peace times, function as an instrument of intimidation through parades, tests and public exhibitions, such as The recent in Beijing in which missiles were Hypersonic and new ICBM.
Expansion of Brigades 611 and 616. Brigade 611, in Anhui, ha Duplicate its size With training facilities, simulated tunnels and up to three dozen launch ramps, an unusually dense concentration that underlines the importance of the enclave. There, Xi Jinping It appeared Personally in 2024 to encourage troops to maintain a “crisis and combat mentality.”
Further south, in Jiangxi, Brigade 616 is He has prepared To receive to DF-17with Adapted hangars to the dimensions of the new hypersonic missile. These deployments show how the Chinese oriental coast becomes a network of offensive nodes designed to saturate Taiwanese defenses and threaten United States facilities in minutes.
Nuclear dimension and risks. The DF-26 Encarna the strategic ambiguity of Beijin, being able to equip yourself indistinctly With nuclear eyelets or conventional. Although American satellites could detect the transfer of nuclear heads from central deposits to these brigades, experts warn that the process It is not infallible And leave a very dangerous margin of uncertainty.
A conflict around Taiwan would have, from the first moment, a Latent nuclear dimension. This ambiguity increases the risk of calculation errors and rapid climbing, especially if Washington decides to attack mobile pitchers in Chinese continental territory, which would mean a serious political and military decision.
Drills and objectives. The Desert construction West of China of models of US warships and warships, some mounted on rails To simulate movement, confirms that Chinese missiles are not prepared only for static scenarios on land, but also to beat the US Navy In open sea.
Chinese military plans plan to disperse mobile pitchers in caves and camouflaged locations, shoot and retreat, in a wear set to saturate and exhaust enemy antimisile defenses. Recent studies They conclude that the US air bases in Asia, many without sufficient reinforced shelters could be devastated in the first bars of a contest.
Limits and vulnerabilities. The brilliant increase in capacities has not been exempt from problems. Scandals of corruption and purges internal have splashed to the missile force, and the Pentagon reports They alert that the quality of some nuclear infrastructure could be compromised.
In addition, despite advances in radars and satellites, doubts persist about the efficacy of missiles in real combat conditions, especially against moving ships, where tactical uncertainty is much greater than against fixed objectives on land.
The missile as a nucleus of power. If you want also, the accumulation of thousands of missiles on the coast Oriental reflects the conviction of Xi Jinping that the future of the Taiwanese issue goes through the coercion and threat of force use. That so -called as missile strength It is, in words of analyststhe “Crown Jewel” of the Popular Liberation Army: an instrument that expands the Chinese projection to the entire Western Pacific complicates any calculation of US intervention and places Taiwan under constant pressure.
The “but” is that, the same strategy that seeks to ensure success, also contains the risk of a calculation error by precipitating a escalation nuclear unprecedented from the Cold War.
Image | Maxar Technologies, Nara
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