First it was a swarm of Russian drones entering Poland’s airspace. NATO He responded with fire. That first order of Moscow has had its continuation last Friday, when three Russian fighters did the same In Estonia. NATO response was overwhelmed again. However, threat and tension, far from lesseing, has increased a few hours ago About the Baltic Sea.
Russian incursion in Estonia. As we said, the recent cross of three fighters MIG-31 Foxhound Russians in Estonia’s airspace All alarms In Eastern Europe and has tested the immediate response capacity of NATO. The intrusion, occurred on The island of Vaindloo In the Gulf of Finland, it was carried out without flight plans, with transponders off and without communication with the Sonian air control services, which makes it an act deliberately provocative.
Given this, the new Eastern Sentry operationwith the takeoff of Italian F-35 fighters of the Baltic Air Police Detachment, to which devices were added Swedes Jas 39 flu and Finnish fighters to intercept and monitor intruders. The episode It is not isolated: It continues at the entrance of 19 Russian drones in Poland and Romania the previous week, of which several were demolished by Polish and Dutch forces, and others crashed into Polish territory. These incidents demonstrate a Russian pressure pattern that seeks to test the limits of the alliance.
Reactions. The political response was swift. Estonia Foreign Minister He described the incursion of “unprecedented provocation” and demanded rapid measures of political and economic pressure. Prime Minister Estonia communicated directly with NATO general secretary, Mark Rutte, who reiterated the solidarity of the organization and the need for reinforce deterrence In the region. In addition, Estonia announced that he will convene for the first time in his 34 years as a member of the United Nations an emergency meeting of the Security Council.
European diplomacy, in the voice of Kaja Kallas, He condemned the act As a “dangerous provocation” and stressed that it was already the third violation of community airspace in a few days, promising more support for the defense of the Baltic states. In parallel, voices in Lithuania They suggested that the alliance should be willing to demolish intruder planes, remembering the Turkish 2015 precedentwhen a Russian Su-24 was killed on the border with Syria.
A Russian Mig 31
The legal framework. Given the situation, Estonia considers invoke article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which forces allies to joint consultations provided that one of them feels threatened their safety, such as Poland already did After the intrusion of Russian drones. The activation of this mechanism reflects the severity with which the threat is perceived and the need to show cohesion against Moscow.
The Eastern Sentry operation, launched days before, initially provides rapid reaction fighters and an anti -aircraft, with the perspective of extending from The Arctic to the Black Sea to cover the entire eastern flank of the alliance against drones, missiles and airplanes. General Alexus Grynkewich, Supreme Commander Allied in Europe, He stressed that this new frame will allow a more flexible and focused defense where it is required.
A Russian IL-20m
German interception. A few hours ago the tension It has increased. The output of Two German Eurofighter From the Rostock-Laage base to intercept a Russian IL-20M recognition plane on the Baltic Sea, it has placed the region again in the center of the climb between Moscow and NATO.
Again, the Russian apparatus flew with the transposeor off, without responding to contact calls, an increasingly common pattern in incursions that are interpreted as acts of deliberate provocation. The incident came just days after the incursion of the three Russian Mig-31 fighters.
The strategic pulse of Moscow. For Poland and Baltic states, incidents are not isolated, but part of a sequence of calculated steps of harassment. Just a few days ago and as we count, Warsaw denounced Lat the fall of 19 Russian drones In its territory, and its Foreign Minister described the Kremlin strategy as a series of incremental provocations, always on the edge, but without reaching the open conflict.
The discovery of remains of a lure drone in a Polish forest reinforces the sensation constant trial of NATO defenses. Meanwhile, the Kremlin He denies responsibility and accuses the West, in particular to the United Kingdom, to lead an alleged “warmongering field” that prevents progress in the resolution of the war in Ukraine.
The fissures of the West. One of the most disturbing elements in this context is the perception that the United States could be reducing its commitment in the defense of the eastern flank. Bloomberg cited Kremlin sources according to which Putin would have concluded, after his summit with Donald Trump in Alaska, that Washington will not significantly reinforce kyiv’s military capacity, which encourages Moscow to intensify its attacks to force Ukrainian capitulation.
In parallel, The Guardian told that reports that the White House plans to reduce security assistance to Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, despite being countries directly exposed to Russian pressure. Trump’s statement, stating that he would defend Europe but without deepening details, adds strategic ambiguity at a time of high voltage.
Climbing risk. Baltic and Central European leaders agree that the situation is dangerously approaching A breakdown. The president of Latvia, Edgars Rinkēvičs, warned that, although Russia strives to clearly exceed red lines, erratic logic and incompetence at different levels of the Russian system could lead to a real clash, whose responsibility would fall on the Kremlin.
From Prague, President Czech Peta Pavel He claimed an answer Firm and united from NATO, remembering that giving in to the aggression would be equivalent to “turning your back on evil.” The shadow of a greater conflict plans on the northeast European: each new air incursion or drone attack increases the probabilities of a calculation error that precipitates a direct confrontation.
Ukraine and a way. Under this climate of growing hostility, President Zelensky declaredbefore traveling to the UN, who would be willing to meet with Putin, even with Trump, to explore A political exit. Moscow, however, maintains the unassumable condition that the “deep causes” of the conflict are first attended, that is, that kyiv accepts to surrender.
The air voltage In the Baltic, the Hostage with drones in Poland and Romania and the Russian diplomatic pressure They combine thus in a wear strategy that seems to point to the division of the West and subtract support from Ukraine. For the Baltic states, what is at stake is not only regional security, but NATO’s very credibility on its most vulnerable border.
Image | BORN, Kirill Numeumenko, VITALY KUZMIN
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