According to demographers one of the main factors What is behind the drop in birth rates around the world is that people are not getting married. And yes, I am aware. I can also think of a lot of counterarguments, but the truth is that “marriage and fertility move together with extraordinary regularity“.
And, being so, some demographers saywhy don’t we pay people to get married?
Pay people to get married? The idea may seem crazy, but it is based on a rather curious issue: that men’s income predict the number of marriages.
That is, in places where men earn more, there are more marriages. This is not an extremely strong correlation, but it is very clear (and, as soon as we correct it, it gains strength). The question is why.
And is the marriage market actually an insurance market? As? As it sounds. From a sociodemographic point of viewhusbands are a kind of insurance policy.
It doesn’t mean that people get married. only for money: but what marriage has traditionally been a widespread solution to the problems and disruptions of having children. A process in which, it goes without saying, women run more risks (health risks, yes; but also work, social and economic risks) than men.
put up with a husband (someone who can “reduce” the impact of possible problems that arise) is in a way like paying for insurance: we do it with greater or lesser pleasure in the hope of having it if we need it in the future.
Men are many more things, of course.. However, as Lyman Stone points outsalary is usually a pretty good ‘proxy’ for many positive people skills.
And, in fact, it works like this even if we are not fully aware of it. It’s something that culturally seeps into our judgments about others.
But what happens if insurance covers us less and less? That is the central question: if we look at the US data, we can see that “American incomes are increasing, but this increase is concentrated entirely in women and/or people over 40 years of age, not by young” men. In fact, “men’s real incomes showed no growth or even a decline at almost all ages below 35 years.”
As insurance coverage decreases (men can contribute less and less) and monthly payments remain the same (because, well, in the last 20 years the nature of marriages has not changed much), taking out the policy (getting married) It is becoming less and less attractive.
It seems silly… but as Lyman Stone saysthe casual effect is there. “When women win the lottery, there is little to no effect on their marriage rates. But when men win the lottery, they get married . Seriously, they (buy houses and) they get married“.
It is not the only factorof course: but it is surprisingly important.
And surprisingly easy to fix. Because marriage benefits work. Above all, they work much better than maternity benefits work.
Image | Photo Pettine | Stock Birken