Against all forecast –And in the middle of Trump was in the White House– California is demonstrating that the sun can with the night. The recipe has no technological mystery: a lot of photovoltaic, many batteries and an increasingly fine demand management. The result is that natural gas, for decades the king of the evening peak, yields ground quickly.
The key is in batteries. And the state of California is more than clear. The solar generation has increased in this half year by 18% compared to the same period last year and the discharge of batteries grew by 63%, allowing to cover up to a third of the maximum night demand, According to Ember. That cocktail allowed to cover the maximum night demand, a space that until nothing dominated the combined cycles of gas. The impact has been fulminant: the production of gas plants fell 25% in one year and 43% in just two.
During the summer, in 41 of the last 49 days, the Californian network was able to meet the entire demand exclusively with solar, wind and hydro, sometimes for more than nine consecutive hours. In several days, the renewable supply exceeded 140% of the demand, with surpluses exported to neighboring states, As explained by Professor Mark Jacobson in an interview with Bruce McCabe.
The kitchen of success. The key to the Californian turn can be summarized in a word: capacity. In just four years the state went from having 0.6 GW of batteries at a network scale (2020) to 11.7 GW in 2024, almost half of the entire National Park. That year it installed more storage (3.8 GW) than large -scale solar (2.5 GW), a milestone that reflects the change of priorities, as they have detailed in an Ember report.
However, we are not talking only about the hardware of the matter. The Caiso operator He opened the door that the batteries arbitrate intra -diagram prices – cargar when the energy is abundant and cheap, sell in expensive hours – participate in regulation services and reserve part of their capacity for the so -called “critical hours” in the afternoon. In 2024, even with more moderate price peaks, its role in the Net-Peak was consolidated, displacing the gas turbines that used to dominate that section.
Two factors that have helped. On the one hand, solar roofs already produce the equivalent of 13% of the electricity sold in the state, reducing the daytime demand of the network and, when combined with domestic batteries, also the nocturnal.
On the other hand, the Demand-Side Grid-Sport (DSGS) program has given rise to one of the world’s largest power plants in the world, with more than 200 MW operations and 720 MW of customer batteries. In the summer of 2024 it was activated 16 times during heat waves and tested its stabilizer effect. However, its future is uncertain: the state budget deficit and a cut of 18 million dollars put both DSGS and the Microredes Deba program at risk, warns PV Magazine.
The impact on prices. The most immediate result for consumers is that prices have relaxed. The renewables sank the wholesale cost: the spot fell 53 % year -on -year and many noon sections recorded negative prices, damping thanks to the fact that the batteries already absorb 15 % of the demand in those hours. According to Jacobsoncomplete electrification can save between 60% and 65% of the annual energy invoice compared to the current fossil -based model.
All pink color? No, California still faces challenges. Demand response programs depend on public budgets that are not guaranteed. As Jacobson has pointed out In a study published in Standfordthe network needs to continue improving its flexibility: move hydroelectric to the night, accelerate marine wind and strengthen demand management are essential steps.
Spain: The other face of the currency. While California wins the gas battle, Spain lives the opposite paradox: it produces more renewable than ever, but cannot only trust them. After the blackout of April 28, 2025, Red Eléctrica activated a reinforced operational mode which prioritizes combined cycles. The problem is not the lack of sun or wind, but storage and flexibility. Without enough batteries or hydraulic pumping, the network lacks mattress to transfer the noon surplus at night peak.
The Government knows and has reacted with an “antiaps insurance”: Royal Decree-Law 7/2025 He opened the door to capacity markets that remunerate firm technologies for being available. The objective is to maintain 9,000 MW of combined cycles that were at risk of closing. But those are temporary crutches. Structural solutions – batteries, hydraulic storage, micro -redes and demand management – will take at least until 2026 to deploy.
Two roads, the same lesson. Mark Jacobson He foresees California will reach 80% renewable between 2026 and 2028 and 100% between 2030 and 2033. Ember He estimates that in 2025 A batteria GW will be installed for every 1.7 GW of solar, further accelerating gas replacement.
The moral is clear: California demonstrates that miracles or futuristic technologies are not needed: with solar, wind, hydro and batteries enough to bend gas. Spain, on the other hand, remembers that the transition is not improvised: without sufficient storage or management, renewables cannot sustain the network alone. The road is clear; The question is who will travel faster.
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