In one unprecedented nightbetween 11 and 19 Russian drones they violated the Polish airspace, many from Belarus, between 23:30 and 6:30, coinciding with new offensives against Ukraine. Several devices were shot down by fighters F-16 Poles and Dutch F-35while others fell into a Polish territory, one came to hit a home. What happened next is an escalation of tensions in the old very dangerous continent.
Against Poland and the rest of Europe. Shortly after It was known that remains of at least seven drones and a projectile still without identifying were recovered. The authorities revealed many of them as gerbera drones, a simplified Russian variant The Shahed-136 Iranian, whose 600 km range Leave doubts about your launch point.
The remains They appeared in areas near the eastern border and also in regions to the north and west, which forced the Temporary closure of four airports, including Warsaw.
The military response. Poland activated its defenses Aeros and deployed airplanes, helicopters and an early alert system SAAB 340 Erieye To follow the drones. Together with Dutch participation, an Italian early alert plane joined, A MRTT cistern of NATO and Patriot batteries German on alert, although without shooting.
It was primera time in history that alliance airplanes opened fire in their own airspace against a hostile target. Remains of a Amraam missile They suggest that modern air-air-air weapons were used, although it is not clear whether by F-16 or F-35.
Warsaw and the alliance. Prime Minister Donald Tusk described violations as an act of aggression that increases the risk of a great war in Europe “at the highest level since 1945”. The Polish government summoned the Russian Business Manager, although Moscow He denied responsibilities and said he did not intend to attack Poland.
Warsaw invoked article 4 of the Atlantic Treaty, which opens consultations among the 32 allies when the integrity or security of a member is threatened. It was the eighth time which has been activated since 1949. NATO, however, confirmed that there will be no immediate changes in its military position.
International reactions. The episode caused immediate condemnations In Europe and the United States. Democratic and Republican legislators spoke of a “fire test” of Putin, with some qualifying the attack of “act of war” and claiming hard sanctions. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said the drones were clearly directed to Poland and did not deviate by error.
Many analysts consider that the action could be A Moscow essay to study the NATO reaction and reinforce its hybrid war strategy in Europe. Meanwhile, Tusk revealed which has received concrete support proposals to reinforce the Polish air defense, which already has an ambitious modernization and alert systems such as low -level surveillance hot spurs.
The scope of article 4. He Article 4 establishes that allies must meet for consultations whenever one of them perceives that their territorial integrity, political independence or security They are threatened. This It does not imply An automatic defense commitment, but opens the door to deliberations in the North Atlantic Council that can lead to joint decisions, preventive measures or support deployments.
Since 1949 it has been invoked On seven occasionsthe most recent in 2022, when several countries in Eastern Europe asked for consultations after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Even without formal invocation, already in November 2022 NATO celebrated an emergency meeting after a missile fell in Poland causing two deadgenerating fear of a contagion of the conflict.
Article 5: The cornerstone. Beyond the consultations, the core of the treaty is the Article 5that consecrates collective defense: An armed attack against one or several members in Europe or North America is considered an attack against all. The answer is not automatic or uniform, but each State agrees in consultation what measures to adopt “including the use of the armed force” to restore the security of the Atlantic area.
The text relies on the right of self -defense Recognized by the UN letter and leave each ally the decision of how far you get. That we know, in the whole history of NATO only has invoked once: After the attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States, which led to allied participation in the Afghanistan war.
The risks in Ukraine. This is probably the key until now, since since Ukraine is not part of the alliance, the Russian invasion did not activate article 5although numerous members have contributed weapons, training and intelligence to kyiv.
The danger arises that deliberate attacks or calculation errors (such as aerial incursions, accidental bombings or lost missiles) impact the territory of border countries such as Poland, Romania or the Baltic. In that case, NATO would have to decide if you consider the Cas an armed attack and respond accordingly, with the risk of extending war throughout Europe.
Flexibility and dilemma. Article 5 It does not force to an immediate or uniform response. In fact, its flexible writing allows consultations without a defined term and gives each member margin to calibrate their level of involvement. That elasticity gives it political strength as deterrence, but also generates uncertainty: Its effectiveness depends on the unity and will of the allies.
In the current context, with Russia intensifying hybrid operations and provocations on the eastern border, the border between “accidental” incidents and deliberate aggressions are It becomes more diffuseincreasing the probability that NATO must face the difficult decision to activate or not its collective defense clause.
A risk scenario. In summary, although no victims have registered, aerial violation was described by Polish command as “an unprecedented aggression that put the life of citizens at real risk.” For NATO, the incident opens A new stage In the confrontation: for the first time the alliance demolishes Russian drones within its own space, which brings the risk of climbing.
With the Memory of 2022when activated Article 4 after the invasion of Ukraine, and the Shadow of article 5the crisis leaves the unknown of whether these violations will be repeated and how NATO will react in an increasingly volatile European scenario. Your response will determine whether Moscow receives a real red line or a vacuum to continue exploiting.
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