China has been wondering what to do with its 300 million pensioners. It has a “voluntary” solution

It We count last year. In Europe we don’t stop Find a formula that Relieve the situation of retirement and pension of people. But nothing that happens in the continent resembles what happens in China and its 300 million pensioners (and other hundreds that are projected in ten years). The country has made a decision to stop the problem: gradually upload the retirement age.

Gradual increase. China thinks Gradually increase your legal retirement age in the next five years to try to deal with the aging of its population and the increasingly suffocated pension system. An action that is part of a series of resolutions adopted at a high -level five -year meeting of the Communist Party, known as the third plenary.

An enlightening fact before giving context to the serious crisis of the Asian country: life expectancy has now increased above the United Statesuntil 78 years, and was only 36 years at the time of the communist revolution in 1949.

A crisis of several fronts. The country has a problem: Society ages. With an economy In decelerationa long time since demographic crisis symptoms were felt. Last year, China lost for the second year consecutive population. Meanwhile, on the sidewalk in front, the figures indicated the lowest birth rates since there are records.

All this assumes that the population of age to retire, One of the casualties in the world (60 years for men, 55 for women in administrative work and 50 for working class women), it only grows. In 2022 it was 280 million, last year of 297 million (21% of the total census).

Worse. There are forecasts that speak of other 300 million projected In the next decade, and for the middle of the century there is talk of a population of 60 years or more than, at least, will exceed 500 million (almost 40% of the total register). In fact, forecasts talk about four workers for each retiree in 2030and in 2050, only two.

Gradual retirement by phases. The entire scenario described above leads us to the news that has been confirmed and that has been brewing months ago. “According to the principles of voluntariness and flexibility, we will move constantly and orderly in the reform to progressively delay the legal retirement age,” The Communist Party of China explained last Sunday.

The plan, together with some other key reforms, was published in a resolution three days after the country’s leaders concluded the third Plenary of China, an important political meeting in Beijing that takes place every five years.

What we know. The truth is that it has not been specified how much retirement age or when, but A report on pension development From China published in late 2023, he explained that “65 years may be the final result after adjustment.” The plan has been at stake for some years, as China’s pension budget decreases.

If it serves as a track, in 2019 (and before the pandemic) the cabinet had predicted that the Chinese Pension Fund It would run out in 2035 due to the decrease in its workforce. Years of strong restrictions related to pandemic have further reduced the coffers of local governments and, as they explained, “they could further aggravate the pension deficit.” At the same time and as we said, the huge population of the country has decreased for the second consecutive year in 2023 as the birth rate falls.

Doubts. As for those somewhat “diffuse” terms, especially in the case of a capital issue such as pensions, the Global Times state newspaper cited demographs of the country saying that in the plan to increase retirement age, it stands out “voluntariness” and “flexibility”. It is impossible to predict how far that apparent decision of the Chinese citizen would achieve, but what seems clear is that the authorities recognize that there is no unique policy for everyone when it comes to retirement.

Skepticism. That is the word that now defines the plan between Many Chinese usury on the Internet. Of all the doubts expressed, one that is repeated. “Those who want to retire in advance are exhausted by their laborious works, but those who perform comfortable and lucrative functions will not choose to retire. What kind of work will end with the youngest generation?” A user comments on the Weibo Networksurely exposing one of the key issues that nobody has yet explained.

Image | Soctech, Clay Banks (UNSPLASH)

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*An earlier version of this article was published in July 2024