The tension climbing Between Iran and the US it has had a peculiar effect: it has led to half the world (and the other medium too) to look at a tiny navigable channel located in the Middle East, the Ormuz narrow. In view of the satellite it does not seem much, a narrow sea language that connects the Persian and Oman Gulf, but in practice it is a strategic artery for the world’s fuel traffic. Every day dozens of metaneros and oil companies navigate.
Now Tehran considers to close it as punishment to US attack against its nuclear baseswhat would put Above up The oil market.
What is the Ormuz Strait? A strategic channel for global hydrocarbons transport. A “critical point of oil strangulation “. And a tiny corner of the Map of the Middle East who today look carefully at the economists and leaders of half everyone. Ormuz is a narrow navigable between Oman and Iran that joins the Persian and Oman golves, which in practice makes him an artery for traffic with the Arabic sea.
A Fast look The map arrives to understand two characteristics of Ormuz, both interrelated. The first is its narrow geography. At its closest point the channel measures only 33 km wide, although the navigation zone is even smaller: the two reservations for the passage of oil companies barely reach Three kilometers Each one and are separated by a damping zone with a similar width. Hence The Wall Street Journal point out that world markets are really pending a strip of nine kilometers.
Why is it important? Because dozens of huge ships loaded with crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) that drives the economies of world world powers, including China, are going through these routes, including China, including China, including China, including China, including China, The biggest buyer of Iranian oil. The data speak for themselves. The Vortexa firm Calculate That between the beginning of 2022 and last month every day they flowed through the narrow millions of barrels of oil (between 17.8 and 20.8) of different types, which means that the Ormuz Strait channels the fifth part of the world consumption of crude oil.
And that is just oil. There are those who calculate that Something more than 20% From the metaneros ships that navigate the world pass through that narrow channel that Iran and Oman separates. The firm Lloys List has thrown accounts and calculates that every day they transit about 15 million barrels of crude oil, 2.5 million barrels of products, 20% of liquefied natural gas and one third of Liquefied oil gas. AND
It is then distributed by the world, with a special impact on Asian economies. The AEI assures that 84% of crude and 83% of the LNG that passed last year through the Ormuz Strait ended in Asia markets.
Why is it news? Because the stability of the channel is on the tightrope. After Washington Atacase the weekend Three Nuclear Bases of Iran, the world now expects Tehran’s response and among its possible movements is the blockade of the Ormuz Strait, which would submit to the fuel market (and by extension to the global economy) to strong pressure.
How is probable? That is the million -dollar question: will they really go to close the Strait? Although there are analysts who doubt that Tehran will adopt a measure that would damage their own economy and that of its neighbors, Like Saudi Arabiathe Iranian government has already shown that the idea is on the table. On Saturday the Islamic Advisory Assembly recommended The closure of the channel, although the final decision is not in its hands, but in those of Ali Jamenei.
For now, the government has made it clear that they do not rule out taking a step that would tighten the markets and would probably have its reflection in prices. Yesterday the Commander of the Revolutionary Guard insisted in that the closure of Ormuz “is being considered”, and warned: “Iran will make the best decision.” The channel blockade is only one of the options that Tehran would have to respond to US attacks. The analysts They speculate With other options, such as direct attacks on US forces, hitting diplomatic missions or cyber attacks.
How would the Strait close? It is not the first time that they will love with tensioning the markets. He did it Already in 2018, in full strip and loosen with Washington for the sanctions to Tehran. TWSJ appointment Naval analysts and operators of the oil sector who remember that the Iranian Navy has been expanding its power in the area thanks to different resources, such as the use of boats capable of attacking objectives. They also talk about the possible use of mines or even the assault of ships from helicopter with the purpose of “retaining them for long periods.”
A few years ago, In July 2019the Islamic Revolutionary Guard of Iran already assaulted a British oil tanker in the Ormuz Strait and kept it blocked for months in response to the arrest of one of its ships in Gibraltar. Washington could answer with their war ships, but there are experts, such as Antony Gurnee, former director of the oil sector, who warn that clearing the Strait would take time … with its consequences for the international market, as verified Not long ago In the Red Sea with Hutis attacks.
What effects would the closure have? The first would be evident. Qatar, Baréin, Arab Emirates or Kuwait would face serious problems to export their crude. Saudi Arabia could continue to supply a part to the market thanks to its East-West pipelinebut its global export capacity would be strongly affected. Iranian oil would also be harmed, since it uses the same river access road, and would affect one of its great world buyers: China. The threat for Beijing is so serious that Washington already He asked him that intermediate to remove Tehran from the head the possibility of closing Ormuz.
Sable noise and restlessness around the future of a strategic channel for the world carbide market has already been noticed in the parquet. Petroleum futures They have increased And, after US attacks on Iran’s nuclear bases, Brent crude $ 80 a barrela value that had not been seen for months. Lloyd’s List warns of other threats such as the increase in traffic rates and risk premiums, even if the Strait does not close.
Images | European Space Agency (Flickr), Jacques DESCLOITRESA (Flickr) and Michael Gaylard (Flickr)
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