In the terms in which it seems that the United States wants to end the war, Ukraine does not seem to have much to win in A peace agreement with Russia. Except if he brought out his rare earth reserves, those minerals that presume that he counts in large quantity. So much so, that, in 24 hours it is expected that Ukraine firm an agreement of cooperation with the Trump administration with minerals as protagonists. There is more than one problem.
The agreement. The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, will meet this Friday with his American counterpart, Donald Trump, in Washington to sign an agreement that gives the United States access to mineral resources Strategic Ukraine. Although Zelensky hopes that this pact will serve as a basis for future negotiations, he has recognized that does not include security guarantees concrete by the United States despite the fact that kyiv had insisted on this point during negotiations.
Trump, meanwhile, has justified the agreement as a way that US taxpayers recover part of Help funds sent To Ukraine (the Biden administration raised the investment to More than 100,000 million dollars in assistance), arguing that the responsibility of Ukrainian security should fall in Europe.
The terms. While the final details are still unknown, the Ukrainian prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, confirmed that both parties have agreed a preliminary version of the pact. According to this, it will be established An investment fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine, which will be jointly managed by kyiv and Washington on equal terms. Ukraine will contribute 50% of future income generated by their state natural resources, including minerals, oil and gas, and these funds will be reinvested in projects within the country.
In this regard, a draft Obtained by the New York Times It suggests that the United States will have the greatest amount of participation allowed in the fund according to its legislation, although You will not have absolute control. Previously, Trump had demanded that Ukraine yield resources for Value of 500,000 million dollars As compensation for military and economic assistance received, but this point has been discarded in the final version.
There are no guarantees. One of the most controversial aspects of the agreement is the lack of a formal security commitment by the United States. Zelensky insisted on the inclusion of a reference to security guarantees, although the final version only mentions that the United States “Support Ukraine efforts to obtain necessary guarantees for lasting peace.”
No doubt, this does not imply a direct military support or specific commitments in case of Russian aggression.
What Trump says. The President has declared that the United States will not provide security guarantees “beyond what is necessary” and that the protection of Ukraine It must fall on Europe. However, he pointed out that the presence of US workers in Ukrainian territory would provide “automatic security”, suggesting that investment in natural resources would deter Russia of attacking these strategic sites. He also said that the United States will continue to provide armament and ammunition to Ukraine “until an agreement with Russia is reached.”
Why do minerals matter. We have told it before. Ukraine houses approximately 5% of world reserves of critical minerals, including graphite, titanium, lithium and rare earths, essential for the production of batteries, weapons, wind turbines and advanced technology. Thus, the United States, which seeks reduce its dependence on China In key materials for green technology and defense, see in Ukraine a strategic opportunity.
According to The Ukraine Geological Service itselfthe country is one of the richest in the world in essential resources for energy transition and military industry.
The problem: half are Russian. The main stumbling block that Ukraine has in the negotiation is that, paradoxically, almost half of its mineral reserves They are on land occupied by Russia Since the invasion in 2022, which has complicated access to these resources. We talk about something else 40% of these resources.
To get an idea, the Minister of Economy of Ukraine, Yulia Svydenko, said that mineral resources in territories under Russian control They amount to 350,000 million dollars. In addition, the extraction of these minerals faces a greater obstacle: it is estimated that 25% of the Ukrainian territory is contaminated with land minesespecially in the east of the country, which hinders the development of mining projects without an adequate demin strategy. According to the Halo Trust organization, the nation has 150,000 contaminated square kilometers With these explosives.
The Russian counteroffet. Not just that. In a twist of events, and knowing the negotiations, Vladimir Putin has declared in A televised interview that Russia is willing to offer to the United States access to your own mineral resourcesincluding, of course, those located in the occupied Ukrainian territories. In fact, he emphasized that Russia has “significantly more resources of this type than Ukraine” and that he is ready to attract foreign partners to exploit them in the so -called “new regions”in reference to the areas of Ukraine attached by Moscow.
Moreover, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, fell importance to Zelensky’s visit to Washington and suggested that the final content of the agreement is not yet at all clear. Putin, meanwhile, mentioned the possibility of collaborate with the United States In the production of aluminum in Siberia, which would indicate an attempt of Moscow for interfering with the negotiations between kyiv and Washington and offering a more viable alternative for the United States.
The challenge of access to resources. It is the last of the obstacles with respect to minerals. Despite its enormous potential, the exploitation of these resources Face significant difficulties. As we said, the Russian invasion has left Ukraine without access to much of its mineral reserves, particularly in occupied regions such as Donetsk and Zaporiyia. But, in addition, the country’s infrastructure has remained severely damaged After three years of conflict, which complicates the extraction and transport of materials.
An uncertain future. Thus, the agreement that will be carried out in 24 hours is full of edges for Ukraine. While Trump prioritizes obtaining economic benefits to any type of help and Discard a security commitment Direct, Zelensky faces the challenge of justifying the pact before his country, where US support is vital for the continuity of the war against Russia.
The lack of concrete guarantees leave Ukraine in a vulnerable position, since it continues Depending on the western support without certainty about his military and diplomatic future. Yes, the signing of the agreement will mark a milestone in the relationship between the United States and Ukraine, but the absence of a clear defense policy could affect the stability of the country and the course of the conflict with Russia in the coming months.
Image | Bohan_ 伯韩 Sh, Zbigniew Dylewski
In Xataka | Rare earths will play an important role in the peace of Ukraine. The only problem is that they may not exist
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings