Just when in Spain we began to breathe a sigh of relief, convinced that we had overcome the inflationary trauma of 2022 “after cutting energy ties” with Russia, history repeats itself. This week a “black Monday” began that has shaken international markets. This time the epicenter is not in eastern Europe, but in the Persian Gulf, after the recent attacks that have been forced to paralyze QatarEnergy facilities.
The impact on our country has been devastating. According to data collected in OMIEthe price of electricity in the wholesale market has jumped 60% in just 24 hours, climbing to 90.14 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). To put it in perspective, this represents a 1,300% increase in price compared to what we paid just a month ago. The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, has already warned that We must prepare for a “long war” with serious global economic consequences. And the fear is already palpable in the street with the long lines that yesterday we observed of drivers trying to fill their tank at gas stations low cost before prices continue to rise.
If the gas goes up, why does the electricity go up? To understand why a conflict thousands of kilometers away makes our electricity more expensive almost instantly, you have to look at how our system works. As explained The Confidential in a very didactic way: the European electricity market is “marginalist”. This means that the most expensive technology that needs to be used to cover the demand of a specific day is the one that sets the final price of all energy. If the sun or wind is not enough and the gas plants have to be turned on, all electricity is paid for at the price of gas.
And the gas, right now, is trapped in a war funnel. As we have already explained these days20% of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 25% of the world’s oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz (the epicenter of the current tension). Any threat of a blockade in that area generates a domino effect that triggers reference prices in Europe. The energy expert Joaquín Coronado explained in LinkedIn that this panic is already real: The prices of electricity futures for the rest of 2026 have suddenly risen by 24%. As he himself points out, “only the price of gas has changed,” but that is enough to drag down the entire system.
The hit in the pocket. All this macroeconomics lands directly in the bank account of citizens. As pointed out The Countrythere are more than 11 million users in Spain who have regulated rates (the PVPC for electricity and the TUR for gas) who will notice this increase almost immediately, since their contracts reflect the daily fluctuations of the market.
The calculations about what this crisis is going to cost us are already on the table:
- The OCU, in statements to The Newspaperestimates that if these prices are maintained, the average electricity bill with a regulated rate will jump from the 62 euros we paid in February to around 82 euros in March. An increase of 30% in a single month.
- A platform report Roams figures the monthly impact about 12 euros extra for electricity (17% more) and increases of up to 18% on the gas bill.
- The worst scenario is drawn the comparator Selectra: If the conflict drags on and we return to the panic levels of 2022, the electricity bill could skyrocket by 200%.
But energy is just the first domino. Financial Times collect warnings from the chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), who already assumes a short-term rebound in general inflation. As oil rises, transportation rises: from fuel at the pump (gas stations already assume extra costs of 12 cents per liter) to maritime freight of goods and plane tickets, which on some routes to Asia have quadrupled in price.
So, are we the same as in 2022? The good news is that we are not exactly at the same starting point as when the Ukrainian war broke out. As analyzed elDiario.esSpain today has three “mattresses” that cushion the first impact: the arrival of spring (which reduces the use of heating), some reservoirs 83% full (which allow generate a lot of hydroelectric energy cheap) and an electric mix where more than 50% of energy is already renewable. Furthermore, the PVPC formula was recently renovated so that it does not depend only on the daily market, softening the extreme peaks a little.
The bad news is that we have exchanged one problem for another. To stop depending on Russia, we throw ourselves into the arms of the United States. As the economist José Carlos Díez warns in the chain Vibe Zero44% of the gas we consume today comes from the US. This places us in a position of extreme vulnerability to the new geopolitical “black swan”: the anger of Donald Trump. The refusal of the Spanish Government to give up the military bases of Rota and Morón for the offensive against Iran has caused Trump to threaten to cut off all trade with Spain. If the United States turns off the tap on LNG ships, José Carlos Díez warnsSpain does not have the physical capacity or infrastructure to replace a supplier that gives us almost half of our gas from one day to the next.
The social shield and our pending duties. Faced with the threat of the crisis becoming entrenched, the Government is already moving. According to Expansion, If the conflict lasts more than four weeks, Pedro Sánchez’s Executive has on the table reactivating the “social shield” of previous crises: reductions in VAT on electricity, fuel discounts and direct aid.
However, fiscal patches do not hide the underlying problems. In Xataka We have put our finger on two great absurdities of our system. On the one hand, we are an “energy island” since we have seven regasification plants capable of receiving ships from all over the world and helping Europe, but we do not have the gas pipelines (tubes) necessary to cross the Pyrenees and send that gas to the rest of the continent.
On the other hand, we suffer an incomprehensible renewable jam. Although we produce a lot of solar and wind energy, sometimes we have to throw it away because the electrical grid is bureaucratically collapsed and, above all, because we lack large-scale batteries to store that energy for when there is no sun or wind. As he graphically summarizes Xataka the CEO of the company SotySolar, José Carlos Díaz Lacaci: “We are applying rules of a one-way highway to a two-way system.”
A halfway transition. Four years ago we learned the hard way about the danger of depending on a Russian gas pipeline and changed it to liquefied gas ships from the United States and Qatar. Today, we discovered that we have only replaced one vulnerability with another. As long as we need to burn gas to turn on the light or run the washing machine, our pockets will continue to be hostage to international geopolitics; whether due to a drone over the Strait of Hormuz or a commercial tantrum in the Oval Office. Spain’s true strategic autonomy will not come the day we sign better international contracts, but rather the day we manage to store our own renewable energy.
Image | freepik and Goran_tek-en
Xataka | The EU has a perfect plan to suffocate Russia. The problem is that now it needs its oil to survive
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