With the conflict of the Middle East there is a paradox. Israel has been saying that Iran is about to Have nuclear weaponssomething that nobody is certain that it is so, at least not in its entirety. In fact, it is one of the most repeated issues these days how far the Iranian “nuclear theme” reaches. And yet, no one asks the question in reverse. What happens to Israel’s nuclear program?
Iran’s “bombs”. It We count yesterday. Despite the alarms on by Netanyahu for more than a decade (like that famous bomb cart that showed in the UN in 2012), there are no conclusive tests that Iran has made the decision to manufacture a nuclear weapon.
While the country has enriched uranium to nearby levels to the military And it has accumulated reservations that, technically, could serve to produce several bombs with greater purification, both US intelligence services and the International Atomic Energy Agency agree that It has not been detected An active weapon program. Iran has become A “threshold state”with the ability to arm himself if he decided, but without evidence of crossed that threshold.
Single side. And while Israel displays All your military force To dismantle what he considers an existential threat (Iran’s nuclear program), he does so carrying his own atomic arsenal, no officially recognized But increasingly evident. The war that Israel has undertaken against Tehran seeks to destroy Key facilities That, according to international experts, they could provide Iran that atomic bomb in a matter of months.
However, in a gesture of paradoxical silence, Israel has never confirmed or denied the existence of its own nuclear program. At the diplomatic level, it maintains an ambiguous formula: ensures that it will not be the first country to “introduce” nuclear weapons in the Middle East. That phrase, deliberately inaccurate, allows you to preserve a discourse of prudence while preserving what most analysts consider a consolidated and growing atomic capacity.
Hidden but feared. In fact, the play is doubly winner. Had the New York Times that the most conservative calculations attribute to Israel a minimum of 90 Nuclear Ojivas lists to be deployed, with sufficient fistening material reserves to manufacture hundreds more. Although its arsenal is the second smallest of the nine countries recognized informally as nuclear powers, Just ahead North Korea, its delivery capacity It is advanced: Balistic missiles, modified and submarine combat aircraft endowed with missiles with nuclear capacity constitute a complete deterrence triad.
Israel’s absence in the Nuclear Non -Proliferation Treaty (which is also not part of Indian, Pakistan or North Korea) reinforces the legal exceptionality of your situation. The treaty, in force since 1970only recognizes the five nations that detonated atomic weapons before 1967: United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom. Any other country that signed should, in theorygive up this armament. Israel has avoided that commitment, thus maintaining a strategic freedom that allows it to operate outside international inspections or explicit limitations.
Dimona’s secret. And here comes one of the keys to the heart. The heart of the Israeli nuclear program beats in the Néguev desert, at the facilities of Dimona. Founded in 1958 With French help, this installation was Inspection object Americans during the 1960s, but since then it has remained Out of reach of any international monitoring.
Broarship intelligence documents They revealed Already in 1960 that the complex included a plant of Plutonium reprocessingwhich implied a military objective. By 1967, Israel had managed to develop nuclear explosives And in 1973, during the Yom Kipur WarThe United States already assumed with certainty that the country He had atomic bombs. Throughout the decades, various satellite images have documented significant extensions In Dimonaand some Recent reports They indicate that Israel could even be building a new reactor to increase its plutonium production capacity, the material indispensable for both nuclear weapons and certain peaceful uses.
Silent deterrence. Unlike dozens of countries that are accepted to the nuclear umbrella From the United States for its defense, Israel has opted for its own atomic shield. This strategic independence suggests that Israel not only has nuclear weapons, but is willing to use them As a last resort If its existence is compromised. Although you have never used these weapons in combat, There are reports which point to their preparation during the wars of 1967 and 1973.
It is also suspected that Israel participated in Secret nuclear trialsas the famous incident of the American satellite Watches in 1979which detected a double light explosion near the Indian Ocean. Although the nation denied its involvement, newspapers of President Jimmy Carter recorded the Strong suspicion that Israel and South Africa collaborated in that clandestine test. Be that as it may, those events still are not confirmed, although the most relevant documents continue to classified, which feeds suspicions.
The strategic logic. In short, and despite Your official opacitythe existence of Israeli nuclear arsenal seems tacitly recognized for its exclusion of otherwise protection mechanisms. The fact that it is not part of the American deterrence is interpreted by experts such as the clearest nonverbal confirmation of its independent atomic capacity. In the eyes of the Israeli government, this decision responds to A philosophy deeply rooted: no one but Israel can and should guarantee their survival.
I remembered the Times that this logic, heiress of foundational trauma From the Holocaust, it was explicitly expressed By Ernst David Bergmann, president of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission, stating that the atomic bomb was the only guarantee that “we will never be taken as lambs to the slaughterhouse.”
No doubt, that principle continues to guide Israeli nuclear doctrine: maintain a sufficiently ambiguous capacity not to cause international reactions, but powerful enough to deter any real aggression.
Image | Planet Lab, The Official CTBO
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