Starting Monday, everything is going to change

As I write these lines, there is more than 13,500 homes without electricity in the Île-de-France and the culprit is only one: Goretti. A storm that, As Samuel Biener pointed outhas intensified very rapidly in the Atlantic and has hit Great Britain, France and the north of the Peninsula.

It is the first named storm of the year and, in Spain, we have been somewhat lucky (because its trajectory has gone north), but it is a very clear reminder of the devastating effects of explosive cyclogenesis.

Then, simply, there will come a thermal shift “from the bowels of the Atlantic.”

Goretti and Spain. As I say, we will not bear the worst of the impact of the storm. But that doesn’t mean anything: Removing wind and swell in the Cantabrian Sea and the western Pyreneesthe greatest effect that our country will suffer is the mass of polar maritime air that will leave us with cool and humid weather in the coming days.

That will bring widespread rain and snow, AEMET has made it clear that has been put on alert to 14 communities and the autonomous city of Melilla. However, we are talking about orange notices and, if we compare with what we have experienced in recent days, it will seem ‘almost’ little to us.

Therefore, we have to be careful, yes; but above all, we have to look at next week.

Script change. As explained meteorologist Víctor González“all the predicted scenarios indicate that a deep trough will be established to the west of the peninsula starting next Sunday and especially during Monday, January 12.”

The specific consequences of this are not yet clear (there is some uncertainty), but the general scheme is: a south and southwest advection that will bring us “air of tropical maritime origin.”

What can we expect? In two words: rain on the Atlantic coast, widespread thaw and much higher temperatures than we have been suffering. At least, for a while.

Because, finally, southern advection will warm Spainbut (when it retreats and leaves us in an anticyclonic situation) the low insolation will activate what in other years we have called the ‘iberian freezer‘: the air mass stabilized over the peninsula will progressively cool until some low pressure system alters it.

In short, let’s fasten our seatbelts because curves are coming.

Image | ECMWF

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